The NCAA Tournament is nearly here, with conference tournament play already underway across Division-I.
With March Madness upon us, it got many thinking— which teams truly cause the “madness”? And what were the largest underdogs to win from a point spread perspective? Using an extensive NCAA Tournament database, they found the 10 biggest underdogs to win a tournament game since 1985— the year the tournament expanded to 64 teams.
Every team on this list was at least a 15-point underdog in their matchup, while some faced even steeper odds of 20+ points yet still emerged victorious. Let’s take a closer look:
10 biggest underdogs to win an NCAA Tournament game since 1985
Kicking off the list, the 15th seeded Golden Eagles of Oral Roberts stunned 2-seed Ohio State in the Round of 64, overcoming a 15-point deficit to secure a thrilling 75-72 overtime victory. This remarkable win made them just the ninth 15 seed ever to triumph in a first-round game. The duo of Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor was instrumental, combining for an impressive 59 points. Oral Roberts would advance to the Sweet 16, narrowly falling to Arkansas by just two points.
Just three seasons ago, Princeton began a magical run to the Sweet 16 with a significant upset against Arizona in another 15 vs. 2 showdown. This victory marked the Tigers’ first tournament win since 1998, with Tosan Evbuomwan leading the charge with 15 points in a tightly contested 59-55 finish. Despite Arizona’s recent Pac-12 Tournament triumph, Princeton managed to hold them scoreless for the final 4:43 of the game. At that time, it was the third consecutive year that a No. 15 seed had won in the first round.
The 15th seeded Blue Raiders from Middle Tennessee made their mark in the 2016 NCAA Tournament by defeating second-seeded Michigan State in the first round. Despite being 17-point underdogs, they secured a memorable 90-81 victory. The Spartans entered the tournament fresh off a Big Ten Tournament title and a strong 29-5 record. In that game, four Blue Raiders scored over 15 points, with Reggie Upshaw Jr. leading the team with 21 points. Middle Tennessee became just the eighth 15 seed to defeat a No. 2 seed since the tournament’s 64-team format began.
In just the second year of the 64-team format, Little Rock shocked a 23-5 Notre Dame team in the first round, becoming only the second 14-seed to defeat a 3-seed. Michael Clarke, Myron Jackson, and Pete Myers each contributed over 20 points in a thrilling 90-83 win. Coincidentally, the first 14-seed to achieve this feat also occurred in the 1986 NCAA Tournament when Cleveland State upset Indiana as 6.5-point underdogs. Little Rock would eventually lose to NC State in overtime in the next round.
Hampton, just the fourth 15-seed to defeat a 2-seed, found themselves down by 11 points but rallied back to end the game on a 14-2 run. They held Iowa State scoreless for the final 7:01 of the contest, with Tarvis Williams leading the charge with 16 points, 13 rebounds, and six blocks. Williams made the game-winning shot with just 6.9 seconds remaining, sealing a 58-57 victory. The Pirates would face Georgetown in the next round.
Coppin State’s first-round victory over South Carolina was remarkable, as they won by 13 points, making them the third 15-seed to defeat a 2-seed and the first to do so by double digits. Antoine Brockington and Danny Singletary combined for a standout performance, scoring 42 points and recording eight steals. However, their journey ended in the Round of 32, where they lost by just one point to Texas.
No team on this list achieved a further run than the 2022 Saint Peter’s squad, which, under the guidance of Shaheen Holloway, made an unforgettable journey to the Elite 8. Their adventure began with a stunning victory over the prestigious Kentucky Wildcats, ending with an 85-79 scoreline. The Peacocks became the 10th 15-seed to win in the first round since the tournament expanded in 1985, marking John Calipari’s first loss in the opening round as Kentucky’s head coach. Saint Peter’s would ultimately lose to North Carolina in the Elite 8, remaining the only 15-seed to reach that stage in the tournament’s history.
The 15-seed Santa Clara made history as the first 20-point underdog to win an NCAA Tournament game since the 1985 expansion, securing a narrow 64-61 victory over Arizona. Although Steve Nash, the standout player for the Broncos, struggled with a 1-of-7 shooting performance, he still contributed significantly with 10 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, hitting 8-of-10 from the free-throw line. Santa Clara became only the second 15-seed to win in the opening round but would lose to Temple in the Round of 32.
The 2012 NCAA Tournament was particularly memorable, as it marked the first time two 15 seeds won in the Round of 64 in the same tournament. Lehigh pulled off an upset against Duke as 12-point underdogs, but the real shock came from Norfolk State, who defeated Missouri despite being 21.5-point underdogs. Led by future NBA star Kyle O’Quinn, the Spartans secured an 86-84 victory in a game filled with excitement, featuring 22 lead changes. All five starters for Norfolk State contributed to the scoring, shooting an impressive 52.6% from beyond the arc. They would eventually lose to Florida in the next round.
Earlier it was mentioned that 16 seeds were 2-154 against 1-seeds all-time in the tournament, with UMBC being the first to achieve such a victory. The second team to accomplish this feat was Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023, when they shocked a 29-5 Purdue team after barely qualifying for the tournament as a First Four participant. Despite being the shortest team in Division-I that season, they secured a stunning 63-58 win. The Boilermakers, led by two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey, faced a formidable challenge. Fairleigh Dickinson didn’t even win their conference tournament, losing to Merrimack by a single point. However, due to NCAA rules preventing Merrimack from participating in the postseason during their four-year transition from Division II, FDU seized their unexpected opportunity.
