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Don’t Miss Our Expert Predictions and Picks for the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Showdown on January 26, 2025!

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Picks - January 26, 2025

In this Bills vs. Chiefs prediction, the Buffalo Bills travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. The Bills come off a victory over the Broncos during Wildcard Weekend and a close win against the Ravens last Sunday night in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs, who earned the top seed, received a bye in the opening round and defeated the Texans last week, marking their seventh consecutive appearance in the AFC Championship game. The kickoff is set for 6:30 pm EST at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. For further insights into the Bills vs. Chiefs prediction, check out our NFL Picks!

Buffalo Aims to Change the Narrative

The Buffalo Bills edged past the Baltimore Ravens, winning 27-25, and are set to challenge the Kansas City Chiefs once again in the AFC Championship Game. This matchup marks the Bills’ second trip to the AFC Title game under head coach Josh McDermott and quarterback Josh Allen. During the Ravens game, Allen recorded two rushing touchdowns, showcasing a collaborative team effort. However, he and the Bills will face a Chiefs team they have yet to defeat in the playoffs.

“We’ve adopted a mindset this year,” Allen commented regarding preparations for the Chiefs. “They manage the game well and make smart decisions. Patrick Mahomes is among the best in the game. Their success is something we all aspire to in the league.”

Allen’s performance against the Ravens was solid, but he may need to elevate his game against the Chiefs if the Bills hope to reach their first Super Bowl since 1994. Overall, he is having his best season yet, completing nearly 64% of his passes for 3,731 yards, with 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions. His ability to protect the football has improved significantly, with only eight turnovers this season compared to 22 last year. Allen is also a dual threat, contributing 12 rushing touchdowns on the ground. The Bills rank 9th in both passing and rushing in the NFL this season, and they excel in the red zone, being the second-best team in red zone offense. They will likely lean on their running game, featuring Allen alongside running backs James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis, who collectively rushed for over 140 yards against a strong Ravens defense. When passing, Allen will distribute the ball among his tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, as well as his top wide receiver, Khalil Shakir, who caught six passes against the Ravens.

Defensively, the Bills finished the regular season ranked 11th in points allowed per game. They struggled against the pass, placing 24th, but were effective in holding Mahomes to under 200 yards in their earlier matchup this season. Against the Ravens, the Bills allowed 416 total yards, with 240 through the air. Currently, they rank second in the playoffs for points allowed per game. Linebacker Matt Milano will be key in containing Mahomes, while nickel back Taron Johnson will focus on challenging Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Buffalo’s red zone defense finished 16th in the league this season.

The Bills must continue their trend of forcing turnovers while maintaining ball security. They topped the NFL in turnover margin during the regular season and hold a +3 margin through two playoff games. However, they also need to be mindful of penalties, as they ranked 15th in the league in penalties per game.

Key Injuries: LB Baylon Spector and S Taylor Rapp are out. CB Taron Johnson, LB Matt Milano, and CB Christian Benford are questionable.

Chiefs Pursuing Historic Three-Peat

The Kansas City Chiefs are in pursuit of a historic three-peat in the Super Bowl era after defeating the Houston Texans 23-14 at Arrowhead Stadium. Mahomes and Kelce continued their strong connection, combining for seven receptions, 117 yards, and a touchdown. The Chiefs are heading to the AFC Championship Game for the seventh consecutive time and will face the Bills for the second time this postseason. While the Chiefs have struggled against the Bills in the regular season, they have been successful in playoff matchups, leading the series 3-0.

“I have great respect for our opponents, and we’ve worked hard to reach this level,” head coach Andy Reid said as the team prepares for their next challenge against the Bills.

Despite falling to the Bills earlier this season, the Chiefs’ playoff experience could prove invaluable. The key players, Mahomes and Kelce, are expected to step up in critical moments. Kelce, who had only one 100-yard game in the regular season, had a standout performance against the Texans. Mahomes has also faced challenges this season, with the Chiefs ranking 15th in scoring. The running game, led by Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, has struggled, finishing 22nd in rushing. The Chiefs managed only 50 rushing yards against the Texans, indicating a need to rely more on the passing game against the Bills’ vulnerable secondary. A significant concern for the Chiefs is their performance in the red zone, as they ranked 24th in the NFL this season in that department.

On defense, the Chiefs excelled throughout the season, finishing 4th in the NFL for scoring defense. They allowed just 14 points to the Texans, with a safety contributing to that total. In their first game against Buffalo, the Chiefs allowed the Bills to convert 3-of-4 red zone opportunities. This season, they ranked 7th in red zone defense but struggled to apply pressure on Allen in their earlier matchup. However, they recorded eight sacks against the Texans, suggesting they may have a better chance of pressuring Allen this time around.

The Chiefs finished the regular season ranked 12th in turnover margin and will need to avoid mistakes, as turnovers were pivotal in their previous loss to the Bills. They excel at avoiding penalties, ranking second in the NFL for fewest penalty yards per game.

Key Injuries: WR Mecole Hardman, DT Marlon Tuipulotu, WR Skyy Moore, and LB Jack Cochrane are out.

Top Picks for Bills vs. Chiefs Showdown

The Bills have a significant opportunity to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in 30 years. They come into this game showcasing their best rushing performance under Allen’s leadership. Utilizing Allen as both a passer and runner has yielded remarkable results. The Bills have focused on ball security, effectively controlling the game’s tempo. Cook has emerged as a top-tier running back, and Allen has diversified his passing game, connecting with multiple receivers instead of relying on one primary target. The Chiefs’ defense, which has been their strength, allowed over five yards per carry to the Texans, raising concerns as they now face Allen and the Bills’ strong rushing attack.

On the flip side, the Chiefs will depend on Mahomes and Kelce to drive their offense. However, their rushing attack has faltered, leaving them with only 50 rushing yards against the Texans. They must rely on short passes to supplement their running game. The Bills’ defensive strategies may target Kelce, limiting him to short catches, which could impact the Chiefs’ offensive flow.

The game will hinge on red zone performance and turnover control. The Bills have the second-best red zone offense in the league, while the Chiefs struggled, finishing 24th. The Bills’ ability to run the ball in the red zone, coupled with their strong turnover margin, gives them an advantage. They are on the verge of a breakthrough and could finally overcome their playoff hurdles this Sunday.

Take Buffalo +1

Seeking Additional Insights on This Prediction?

For more analysis on this game, check out Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction from Statsalt, our partner site.

Source

Written By

Dave Gallo is a leading sports bettor and handicapper since 1999, known for his impressive 10-0 winning streaks. A journalism, advertising, and media studies major at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, he combines his betting expertise with academic knowledge. Gallo's strong work ethic and passion for sports fuel his ongoing success and scholarly pursuits.

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