Paul Skenes or Jackson Merrill for National League Rookie of the Year? Shohei Ohtani’s historic 2024 or Ronald Acuña’s 2023?
With only a week remaining in the regular season, MLB on FOX analyst John Smoltz shared his insights on some of the most competitive award races in baseball, along with the challenges faced by the struggling White Sox.
Smoltz expressed his reservations about players chasing specific statistics, particularly in the stolen base category. He emphasized that achieving 70 stolen bases is impressive in itself and should not lead to unnecessary pressure to match other numbers. This focus, he believes, can detract from a player’s unique contributions to the game.
Kavner: Indeed, and it seems unlikely the Dodgers will allow Ohtani to chase after 50 stolen bases if he’s pitching regularly.
Smoltz: Exactly. Stolen bases should contribute to the team’s success, particularly in close games. Stealing a base with a six-run lead doesn’t add much value. It’s about making impactful plays when they matter most.
He further noted that statistics can be misleading. Players sometimes achieve numbers that look good on paper but lack significance in the context of the game. For Smoltz, the focus should always be on how a player’s performance aids in winning games.
Kavner: The competition for National League Rookie of the Year has been intense, especially between Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill. Jackson Chourio has also emerged as a strong contender in the latter half of the season. Who do you see taking home the award?
Smoltz: I tend to favor hitters, so I would give a slight edge to Merrill. He has been a consistent presence for the Padres and has played a pivotal role in their surprising push for the division title. His late-game performances have been crucial, especially in a league where hitting is notoriously difficult.
While Skenes has had an outstanding season and is undoubtedly deserving of recognition, the impact of an everyday player like Merrill in a playoff race gives him an advantage. Skenes is on track to receive Cy Young votes in the future, and it will be fascinating to see how the Rookie of the Year voting unfolds.
Kavner: Shifting to the American League, who stands out to you as the Rookie of the Year?
Smoltz: That’s a challenging question. I lean towards Luis Gil for his performance as a pitcher in New York. While Austin Wells has also made a case for himself, Gil’s stability was crucial for the Yankees, especially during a period without Gerrit Cole. His dominance in a tough division sets him apart.
Interestingly, in the American League, the argument for a pitcher differs from the one made for a position player, especially in New York, where hitting can be more favorable. Gil’s contributions have been significant for the Yankees, making him a standout candidate.
Kavner: The White Sox are on track to set a record for the most losses in MLB’s modern era. Do you think this is the worst team you’ve seen?
Smoltz: I don’t typically focus on the worst teams, but the 2003 Tigers come to mind. The 1962 Mets also had a tough season, based on what I’ve read. In today’s baseball landscape, the approach to rebuilding teams has changed, and while the White Sox may not be the worst, their strategy of tearing down and rebuilding is not one I would endorse.
Rebuilding strategies can be effective, but they require patience from fans. The White Sox’s current situation raises questions about whether they can replicate the success of teams like the Houston Astros or the Chicago Cubs, who endured long periods of struggle before achieving championship success.
While the White Sox have some promising players, it’s hard to label them the worst ever. Their future could be brighter than it appears, and a rebuild doesn’t necessarily have to take as long as others have.
Kavner: Which team do you believe possesses the best starting rotation heading into the postseason?
Smoltz: The health of the rotation is key. Right now, the Philadelphia Phillies stand out with four strong pitchers and a solid fifth option. They’ve faced some injuries, but their depth gives them an advantage.
The Braves also have a formidable rotation, but the Phillies’ experience and the effectiveness of pitchers like Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola make them a tough matchup in the playoffs.
In the postseason, injuries can impact pitching performances, and teams may need to rely on multiple pitchers to get through. The Phillies’ current health gives them an edge over many other rotations.
Kavner: Let’s wrap up with a hypothetical scenario. If you had to choose between Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal to start a Game 7, whom would you pick?
Smoltz: Right now, I would lean towards Tarik Skubal due to his youth and current performance. Chris Sale has had a remarkable career, but after his injuries and the challenges of recent seasons, I would choose Skubal based on his impressive form this year.
If Sale were completely healthy, the choice might be different. However, at this moment, Skubal’s performance makes him a formidable asset for the Tigers.
