NCAA Tournament Midwest Region breakdown reveals that the fiercest competition for Sampson & Co. may arise from the SEC, which is making history by sending 14 teams to this year’s NCAA Tournament. Notably, the second-seeded Tennessee Volunteers and third-seeded Kentucky Wildcats are poised to clash in the Sweet 16, vying for the opportunity to challenge Houston in the regional finals.
Here’s a full breakdown of the region:
Of the top-four seeds, which team has the most favorable draw in this region?
Upon initial examination, this region appears to be accurately seeded, with No. 1 Houston, boasting a 30-4 overall record and having secured both the regular season and tournament titles in the Big 12, enjoying the clearest route to the Final Four. A potential second-round matchup against the victor of No. 8 Gonzaga and No. 9 Georgia could present challenges — Gonzaga is guided by the esteemed coach Mark Few, while Georgia features standout Asa Newell, a likely first-round draft pick. Nevertheless, the other teams in the upper half of Houston’s quadrant seem manageable. Fourth-seeded Purdue enters the NCAA Tournament in poor form, having lost six of its last nine games, including a significant defeat to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. Fifth-seeded Clemson, while a solid contender, accumulated wins during a notably weak ACC season, raising questions about their true strength. Houston is expected to advance comfortably to the Elite Eight.
However, the landscape could shift dramatically based on the SEC’s performance, especially after setting a record for the most teams in the NCAA Tournament field. The second-seeded Tennessee Volunteers, known for their impressive defensive efficiency, made a strong run to the SEC Tournament title game. Meanwhile, third-seeded Kentucky, though inconsistent, has secured 12 wins over teams participating in this year’s tournament. Either could prove to be a formidable opponent for the Cougars in the regional final.
What is the most intriguing first-round matchup in this region?
High Point, the champions of the Big South, are an exciting team to watch. Under the guidance of former Creighton assistant Alan Huss, the Panthers have established themselves as an offensive powerhouse, ranking 25th nationally in efficiency (118.5 points per 100 possessions), 18th in points per game (82.2), 12th in effective field goal percentage (56.4%), and 47th in free-throw percentage (76.4%). They enter the NCAA Tournament with an impressive 14-game winning streak.
Who are the must-see players in this region?
— Kasparas Jakucionis, the point guard for Illinois, is a player to keep an eye on. This true freshman from Lithuania has been on NBA scouts’ radar for years and is projected to be a lottery pick in this summer’s draft, potentially even landing in the top five. Standing at 6-feet-6 and weighing 200 pounds, he leads the Illini in scoring (15 points per game) and assists (4.6 per game). He has already achieved five double-doubles this season, including a notable 15-point, 10-rebound performance in the Big Ten Tournament.
[MORE: 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket here]
What is the most likely first-round upset in this region?
The 11-seed emerging from Dayton, whether Texas or Xavier, stands a strong chance of upsetting No. 6 Illinois in the first round. The Longhorns, with a 19-15 overall record, are led by freshman guard Tre Johnson, who is one of the nation’s top scorers, averaging 19.8 points per game and is viewed as a potential lottery pick. He is part of a group of four players scoring in double figures for a team that boasts a top-40 offense.
If Xavier prevails, Illinois will face one of the hottest teams in the country. The Musketeers entered the Big East Tournament on a seven-game winning streak, with four victories by double digits, before narrowly losing to Marquette in a thrilling contest at Madison Square Garden. Sharpshooter Ryan Conwell scored 38 points against the Golden Eagles and is averaging 24.4 points per game over his last five outings.
Regardless of the outcome, Illinois may find itself in a challenging position against a team that has shown significant momentum, especially after their disappointing performance against Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, where they trailed by as many as 36 points.
Who will win this region?
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