The New York Yankees will take on the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. PT.
The Yankees are -117 moneyline favorites, and the game total is set at seven runs.
New York (87-63 SU, 77-73 RL, and 79-65-6 O/U) is set to start right-hander Luis Gil. The 26-year-old has an impressive record of 13-6, with a 3.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 26 appearances (135.2 IP) this season.
Seattle (77-73 SU, 63-87 RL, and 69-70-11 O/U) will counter with righty Bryan Woo. The 24-year-old boasts a record of 8-2, featuring a 2.38 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his 19 starts (105.2 IP).
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*Article published before Monday’s game concluded.
Yankees Hold Strong Lead in AL East
The Yankees secured a 5-2 victory in Sunday’s series finale, highlighted by CF Aaron Judge’s MLB-leading 53rd home run. New York scored four runs early and maintained control, winning three out of four against the rival Boston Red Sox. This success has given the Bronx Bombers a three-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East standings.
This season, New York has a solid road record of 45-30 and is 56-42 in night games. Since the All-Star break, they have maintained momentum, winning 29 of 52 games. With a manageable schedule ahead, they are in a strong position for a playoff push.
On Tuesday, Gil will take the mound for the Yankees. He presents a 7-3 record with a 3.29 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in road games this season (12 starts). In his last outing, he allowed one run in five innings against Kansas City. Earlier this season, he faced Seattle, pitching 6.1 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. Overall, he holds a 1-0 record with a 0.00 ERA and 16 strikeouts in two career games against the Mariners.
Seattle’s Recent Surge
Seattle achieved a dominant 7-0 win over Texas on Sunday, with SP George Kirby delivering seven stellar innings. The Mariners scored three runs in the first inning and continued to build their lead, while the Rangers were limited to just one hit throughout the game.
At home, the Mariners are 45-30 and 50-46 in night games. However, they have struggled since the All-Star break, posting a 25-27 record and falling behind in the AL West. Seattle is in urgent need of strong performances to secure a postseason spot.
Woo will be on the mound for the Mariners on Tuesday. In his most recent start, he allowed two runs on two hits while striking out five in a 6.2-inning victory against San Diego. He holds a perfect 5-0 record at home this season with a remarkable 1.66 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over eight home starts (48.2 IP). Woo previously faced New York on May 21, where he kept the Yankees scoreless across six innings, striking out seven batters. He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 12 strikeouts in two career outings against the Yankees.
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Smart Bets for Yankees vs. Mariners
Seattle has won four of its last five contests, including a current three-game win streak. The Mariners, known for their challenges getting on base (ranked 23rd in wOBA), may take advantage of Gil’s elevated walk rate, which stands at 12.3 BB% and 4.64 BB/9. Gil’s 79.2% LOB% suggests he could face negative regression, supported by his 4.25 xFIP and 4.17 SIERA. Additionally, the Yankees’ bullpen has shown inconsistency in the latter half of the season, ranking 16th in ERA and 24th in home run-to-fly ball ratio.
The Yankees currently have a firmer grip on their lead over the Orioles compared to previous weeks, aided by a more favorable schedule featuring upcoming series against Oakland and Pittsburgh. They are set to face the Orioles next week as well, meaning they might not feel the pressure to secure a win on Tuesday. Woo is expected to put Gil to the test, creating an opportunity for challenges. Woo’s impressive 24.3% hard-hit percentage, 8.5% HR/FB ratio, and 4.6% BB% (0.85 BB/9) make him a formidable opponent. His xERA aligns closely with his actual ERA, and he benefits from a top-tier bullpen.
The best betting option appears to be the Mariners ML at +100 odds.
