The Washington Commanders are set to square off against the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET.
As the Ravens enter the game as 6.5-point favorites, the projected total for points scored is set at 51.5.
Washington (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U) comes off a decisive 34-13 victory over Cleveland last weekend, marking their fourth consecutive win.
Baltimore (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U) triumphed over Cincinnati in a thrilling 41-38 overtime match last Sunday, extending their winning streak to three games.
In their previous encounter from 2020, Baltimore secured a 31-17 win against Washington.
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Commanders’ Rookie QB Sparks Strong Performance
Washington has surprised many in the league, achieving four consecutive victories following a season-opening loss to Tampa Bay. The standout performance has been led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who ranks third in the NFL with a QBR of 73.2 and boasts a remarkable 77.1% completion percentage. Last week, he guided his team to a commanding win over a struggling Cleveland squad, outpacing the Browns with a total yardage of 434 compared to their 212. Washington took a dominant 24-3 lead by halftime, showcasing a strong defensive effort by limiting Cleveland to just 3.0 yards per pass, registering seven sacks, and delivering 11 quarterback hits.
“We took it upon ourselves as a defense to make this our game to shine,” remarked linebacker Frankie Luvu, who contributed 2.5 sacks. “There’s always room to grow, and we feel like we’re just getting started.”
The Commanders rank first in the league with an average of 31.0 points per game and fourth with 392.6 total yards. They have demonstrated a balanced attack with 214.2 passing yards (14th) and 178.4 rushing yards (2nd). However, they have faced challenges with 12 sacks allowed and three turnovers this season. Washington excels on third downs, converting 51.6% (1st) and scoring touchdowns on 56.5% of red zone trips (15th).
The defense has allowed 23.0 points (20th) and 328.0 total yards (14th) per game, giving up 198.0 passing yards (13th) and 130.0 rushing yards (22nd). They have recorded 15 sacks and forced three turnovers, but opponents have converted 43.6% of their third downs (23rd) and scored touchdowns on 68.7% of their red zone opportunities (29th).
Ravens’ Defense: Strength Against the Run, Vulnerability in the Air
Baltimore’s latest victory against Cincinnati was a nail-biter, with quarterback Lamar Jackson throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns. While both teams displayed offensive prowess, the Ravens found more success on the ground, averaging 5.1 yards per carry compared to the Bengals’ 3.1. Derrick Henry played a crucial role, rushing 15 times for 92 yards and a touchdown.
“It was a shootout; the second half was intense,” said Ravens coach John Harbaugh. “That was an impressive win against a strong opponent.”
The Ravens currently average 29.4 points (2nd) and lead the league with 447.6 total yards per game. Their balanced offense includes 236.4 passing yards (9th) and a staggering 211.2 rushing yards (1st). They have allowed only five sacks and committed four turnovers so far this season. Baltimore has converted 50.0% of their third downs (3rd) and scored touchdowns on 75.0% of their red zone trips (2nd). The addition of Henry has diversified their offensive strategy, forcing defenses to adapt.
Conversely, the Ravens’ defense has allowed 25.2 points (26th) and 340.6 total yards (19th) per game, conceding 280.2 passing yards (31st) while excelling in run defense, allowing only 60.4 rushing yards (1st). They have produced 16 sacks and five turnovers. Despite their struggles against the pass, the Ravens recently hired former defensive coordinator Dean Pees as a senior advisor to bolster their defensive strategies.
Key Betting Insights for Commanders vs. Ravens
After betting against Washington last week, it became clear that their performance reflected more on Cleveland’s struggles than Washington’s strengths. Daniels, despite his high completion rate, managed only 56% last week, and the offense’s early down success rate was a mere 28%, likely the lowest in the league this season. Washington’s victories came against teams with a collective 6-14 record, casting doubt on their capability against stronger competition.
Now, Washington faces a formidable Ravens defense that has allowed only 60.4 rushing yards per game. The Commanders will need to rely on Daniels to find a way to secure a victory on the road, which may prove challenging given their limited passing options.
Washington’s defense ranks 26th in defensive EPA against the run on early downs, presenting a potential issue against both Henry and Jackson. The Ravens are likely to exploit this weakness, controlling the ball and keeping it away from Daniels. Jackson is also expected to find success against Washington’s struggling pass defense.
Historically, in Jackson’s last ten home wins, the Ravens have averaged a victory margin of 17.8 points. With momentum on their side, following wins against Dallas, Buffalo, and Cincinnati, Baltimore appears well-positioned to claim another comfortable victory this Sunday afternoon.
