As the Miami Marlins (58-99, 28-48 away) prepare to face off against the Minnesota Twins (81-76, 42-34 home) on Thursday, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With only three games left in the season, the Twins are in a race against time to secure their playoff aspirations, while the Marlins are on a mission to avoid hitting the century mark in losses. The series finale will take place at 7:40 p.m. EST, raising the question: Who will carry the momentum into the final weekend?
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Miami’s Role as Spoilers
Though the Marlins’ season hasn’t unfolded as planned, they still have the chance to disrupt the postseason ambitions of others. After stunning Atlanta in a recent matchup, they kicked off this series with a 4-1 victory on Tuesday. Looking to build on this success, Miami will start rookie pitcher Valente Bellozo for his last game of the season. Bellozo has shown promising stats with a 3.82 ERA, 5.74 FIP, and 1.304 WHIP during his rookie year, particularly excelling with a 2.86 ERA in September. In his four starts this month, he has limited opponents to three runs or fewer. Following Bellozo, Miami will rely on a bullpen that ranks fourth in FIP and second in WAR. Can they pull off another upset against the Twins?
However, when Miami steps up to bat, expectations should be tempered. They’ve managed to increase their scoring to an average of 4.33 runs per game in the second half of the season, but their overall performance has left much to be desired. With a season average of just 3.82 runs per game, they sit at the bottom of the National League in scoring. The Marlins are also ranked 17th in batting average, 29th in on-base percentage, and 25th in slugging percentage. Their walk rate is the lowest in the league, and they are 27th in home runs. While they have shown flashes of potential, Miami’s lineup remains inconsistent.
Minnesota’s Struggles Intensify
Back on August 24, the Twins were just 2.0 games from the top of the AL Central, but that optimism has since faded amid a challenging 11-23 stretch. Currently, they find themselves 2.0 games behind Kansas City and Detroit for the final wild-card spot. With the season drawing to a close and performances waning, Minnesota’s playoff hopes are dwindling. In a bid to reclaim momentum, rookie David Festa will take the mound for the Twins. Festa, holding a 4.80 ERA, 3.91 FIP, and 1.283 WHIP, has been instrumental in two of the team’s last three victories. He has kept three of his four September opponents under three runs. Supporting him will be a bullpen rated fifth in FIP and seventh in WAR. Will they help secure a much-needed win?
Offensively, the Twins have experienced a significant downturn this September, recording their lowest monthly averages in scoring (3.36 runs per game), batting average (.219), on-base percentage (.286), and slugging percentage (.334). Their base-running has also faltered, ranking 29th in stolen bases and 27th in percentage, with only three successful steals this month. Surprisingly, they have managed just 16 home runs in September, a stark contrast to their previous months where they consistently hit at least 29. As the team struggles with a 23rd ranking in walk rate, it’s clear that the batter’s box has become a difficult place for Minnesota. Is it too late for them to turn things around?
Key Injuries – Max Kepler (out); Matt Wallner (out)
Smart Betting Insights for Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins
Given the current situation, it’s challenging to place trust in the Twins. Their recent struggles make it difficult to find an edge in this matchup. On the other hand, the Marlins have shown improved offensive production in September, leaving Minnesota at a disadvantage heading into this game.
