The AFC South showdown on Sunday features the Indianapolis Colts (4-3, 6-1 ATS) and the Houston Texans (5-2, 3-3-1 ATS). These two rivals faced each other in Week 1, where the Texans secured a narrow 29-27 victory. The Colts recently achieved a 16-10 win against the Miami Dolphins at home, successfully covering the 3.5-point spread. Meanwhile, the Texans dropped a close game to the Green Bay Packers, losing 24-22 but also covering the spread as 3.5-point underdogs. Currently, Houston is favored by 5 points in this matchup. The game kicks off at 1:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium in Houston, available regionally on CBS.
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Colts’ Recent Surge
The Indianapolis Colts have emerged as one of the most promising teams in the league, winning four of their last five games. Their only setback came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but victories over the Bears, Steelers, Titans, and Dolphins have kept them competitive. They currently trail the Texans by just one game in the AFC South standings. After testing veteran quarterback Joe Flacco for several weeks, the team has returned to young quarterback Anthony Richardson. In last week’s game against Miami, Richardson threw for 129 yards and added 56 rushing yards.
The Colts managed to secure a win despite a modest passing performance. After the game, Richardson expressed confidence, saying, “We expected to come into this game and get the win, that was our whole mindset. It makes me feel good that we got the ‘W’ even though the offense was struggling a little to find consistency.” Richardson’s average of 156.6 passing yards per game is significantly lower than Flacco’s 238.7. The Colts are still evaluating if Richardson will be their long-term solution at quarterback; he has struggled with a 3-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of just 48.5%. Running back Jonathan Taylor has been sidelined since Week 4 but still ranks 23rd in rushing yards with 349 and four touchdowns. Wide receivers Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman Jr. are also crucial to the offense, with Pierce averaging 25.5 yards per catch and Pittman leading the team with 28 receptions.
Currently, Indianapolis ranks 18th in scoring with 22.1 points per game, while their defense is 12th, allowing 21.3 points. They maintain a positive turnover margin of plus two. Linebacker Zaire Franklin leads the team with 76 tackles, while the squad has recorded a total of 14 sacks, with rookie Laiatu Latu contributing two. However, interceptions have been scarce, with only four on the season, two of which belong to cornerback Jaylon Jones.
Injury Report:
Questionable: DE Genard Avery, DT DeForest Buckner, LB Jaylon Carlies
Texans Command the Division
The Houston Texans entered the season as favorites to win the AFC South and currently lead the division by a narrow margin ahead of the Colts. The Jaguars and Titans have struggled this season, combining for just three wins, indicating that the divisional race is likely between these two teams. Despite a recent loss to the Packers, the Texans had won three consecutive games, defeating the Jaguars, Bills, and Patriots. In the Green Bay matchup, running back Joe Mixon shined with 115 rushing yards and two touchdowns, though it was not enough to secure the win.
Houston took a late lead against Green Bay with a field goal but allowed the Packers to respond with a game-winning kick as time expired. Quarterback CJ Stroud faced challenges in the passing game, finishing with only 86 yards, prompting head coach DeMeco Ryans to critique the overall performance. Stroud’s season average stands at 237.6 passing yards per game, with a completion rate of 66.4% and a 10-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Mixon has been effective when healthy, averaging 100.3 yards per game and contributing four touchdowns in just four outings. With Nico Collins on injured reserve, Stefon Diggs has stepped up as the top wide receiver, recording 42 catches for 415 yards and three touchdowns.
As for team statistics, the Texans rank 14th in scoring with 23.6 points per game, while their defense is at 17th, allowing 22.7 points. They boast an eighth-best turnover differential at +3. Leading the defense is linebacker Henry To’oTo’o, who has 46 tackles but is currently questionable due to a concussion. The Texans have recorded 22 sacks this season, with Will Anderson Jr. contributing 6.5 of those, and safety Calen Bullock leads the team with three interceptions.
Injury Report:
Questionable: WR Robert Woods, OT Tytus Howard, LB Aziz Al-Shaair, LB Henry To’oTo’o, CB Kamari Lassiter, S Jimmie Ward
Best Bets for Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Having already secured a victory in Indianapolis earlier this season, the Texans are expected to win by a larger margin this time at home. After a disappointing performance against the Packers, Stroud is anticipated to bounce back and regain his form. The Colts’ passing defense ranks 23rd, which should allow the Texans to exploit weaknesses in their coverage, bringing Stroud closer to his season average of 237 yards per game. Despite the absence of Collins, the Texans still have a strong receiving corps with Diggs, Dell, and tight end Dalton Schultz. The running game has also improved with Mixon, who is averaging over 100 rushing yards per game.
The Colts are relying on Richardson again, indicating a focus on future development rather than immediate results, as Flacco has been more effective this season. Richardson’s struggles with a completion rate below 50% and an unfavorable touchdown-to-interception ratio may hinder his performance against a formidable Texans defense led by DeMeco Ryans. Houston is poised to solidify its position in the AFC South with a significant victory in this matchup.
