Bet the Under on Aaron Judge’s home run total for 2025. Just five months ago, Juan Soto delivered a thrilling, two-out, two-strike, three-run home run, breaking a 2-2 tie in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the ALCS.
This pivotal moment propelled the New York Yankees to their first World Series appearance in 15 years.
However, the Yankees ultimately fell short, losing the World Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
They squandered multiple leads in Game 1, including a heartbreaking walk-off grand slam by Freddie Freeman when they were just one out away from victory.
The series concluded with the Yankees again faltering in Game 5, leading 5-0 in the fifth inning before a series of errors on routine plays allowed the Dodgers to tie the game.
Although the Yankees managed to regain the lead later in the contest, they ultimately lost, missing the chance to return to Los Angeles for Game 6.
The painful end to the season has been compounded this offseason, as the Yankees faced further challenges.
In December, Soto opted to remain in New York but switched teams, signing a lucrative contract with the Mets.
While the Yankees made several notable acquisitions to fill the void left by Soto, enthusiasm around these moves has waned. Gerrit Cole, the team’s ace, faced elbow issues that led to Tommy John surgery, effectively ending his season before it began.
Additionally, Giancarlo Stanton is struggling with two elbow injuries, has yet to participate in baseball activities, and has not ruled out surgery, which would mirror Cole’s situation.
Furthermore, reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil will be sidelined for several months due to a shoulder injury, leaving his return date uncertain.
Given these setbacks, where can one place a bet amidst this gloomy outlook?
The Yankees missing the playoffs at +200 odds is certainly appealing, especially considering the tumultuous offseason. For those seeking a longer payout, right-handed pitcher Will Warren, who is likely to take Cole’s spot in the rotation, might be worth a bet for Rookie of the Year at 15-1, although that line has dropped since the news about Cole broke.
Among these options, betting on Aaron Judge to hit Under 47.5 home runs stands out.
Aaron Judge Under 47.5 home runs (FanDuel)
Judge led the league with 133 walks last year, a feat accomplished while batting alongside Soto and Stanton. With both players absent from the lineup this season, teams will likely pitch more cautiously to Judge, making it challenging for the reigning MVP to replicate his impressive numbers from 2024.
As Judge approaches 34 in April, it’s noteworthy that he has only surpassed 500 plate appearances four times in his nearly decade-long career.
Given the Yankees’ injury struggles, it’s plausible that Judge may miss several weeks, further increasing the likelihood of winning this Under 47.5 home runs bet.
With limited support in the lineup and the potential for injury, placing a wager on Judge not reaching 48 home runs is a bet worth considering.
