Four sleeper teams that could make a deep March Madness run are often the ones that surprise everyone in the NCAA Tournament. Each year, unexpected programs emerge, shaking up the bracket and captivating fans.
Last year, the Final Four featured two No. 1 seeds — Purdue and UConn — alongside a 4-seed in Alabama and an 11-seed in North Carolina State. This unpredictability is part of what makes March Madness so thrilling.
Which teams might surprise fans this season? Here are four sleeper teams that have the potential to make a significant impact in the tournament.
Georgia
Georgia is under the guidance of Coach Mike White in his third year, and this season marks the pinnacle of his efforts. The Bulldogs, currently at +25000 to win the national title, have notable victories against St. John’s, Kentucky, and Florida. Despite facing a tough stretch with nine losses in 11 games from January to February, they excel in offensive rebounding, ranking 19th nationally, which is crucial for teams that struggle with shooting (200th in 3-point shooting).
Their strong defensive capabilities and experience in the competitive SEC could pave the way for a deep tournament run, especially if they receive favorable matchups.
St. John’s
St. John’s stands at 27-4, showcasing the third-best defense in the nation under Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino. Despite their impressive record, the Johnnies find themselves on the sleeper list due to their offensive struggles. They rank 345th in 3-point shooting and 295th in free-throw shooting among 364 college basketball teams.
These troubling statistics raise concerns about their scoring ability in the high-pressure environment of March. However, if their defense remains formidable and the offense finds its rhythm, St. John’s (+2200 to win the national title) could become a formidable opponent, capable of making a deep run or facing early elimination.
Xavier
Xavier is another team to watch, especially considering how often a squad catches fire from beyond the arc during March Madness. Initially struggling in early January, the Musketeers have rebounded since February 1, with only one loss to Villanova. Although the Big East isn’t as strong this year, their road victory at Marquette stands out. Xavier ranks 11th in the nation for 3-point shooting and 10th for free-throw percentage, making them a potential dark horse with +30000 odds to win the national title.
Their experience also plays a crucial role, as six of their top eight players are seniors, providing valuable poise in tight situations.
UC San Diego
UC San Diego may be seeded in the 13-16 range, but they will be a challenging opponent for anyone. Coach Eric Olen has transformed a mix of Division II and III players into a competitive force in the Big West, leading the Tritons to a 13-game winning streak. Their no-middle defense, popularized by Texas Tech, disrupts opponents and has resulted in them forcing the second-most turnovers in the country.
With +40000 odds to win the national title, the Tritons are also an efficient shooting team, ranking 47th in 3-point shooting and 35th in 2-point shooting. However, their lack of size, with only one rotation player over 6-foot-7, may pose challenges. Still, their scrappy nature makes them a team to bet on, provided they avoid facing an SEC powerhouse in the first round.
