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2024 College Football Playoff action report reveals that even without Carson Beck, sportsbooks favor Georgia over Notre Dame. The odds in the first round of the playoffs were favorable for the public, with many bettors cashing in on straight bets and parlays for the favorites.
“Every favorite covered, and the betting activity was remarkable, rivaling that of standard NFL games,” said Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports. “It’s exciting to see games that hold real significance this early in the playoffs.”
The question now arises: Will the favored teams maintain their momentum, or could underdogs like Boise State or Arizona State deliver a shocking upset?
Bookmakers are eager to share their insights on the College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds.
Ahead of the Curve
Most sportsbooks opened with No. 7 Notre Dame as a slight favorite against No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, partly due to the absence of Georgia quarterback Carson Beck.
However, Caesars Sports took a different approach, opening at Georgia -1.5. Their initial stance proved prescient as other sportsbooks adjusted their lines to align with Caesars’ assessment.
“We view Georgia as the superior team, and our initial line reflects that,” Feazel explained. “We were pleased to be on the right side of this movement.”
The line briefly moved to Georgia -2 on Monday before settling back at -1.5 for the 8:45 p.m. kickoff on New Year’s Day.
“Georgia’s strength lies not in the quarterback but in the talent surrounding him,” Feazel noted. “This matchup represents a significant challenge for Notre Dame, particularly regarding the defensive unit they will face.”
“Currently, the betting action appears balanced on both sides. It’s hard to predict where the bettors will lean, but this is definitely the game we are most excited about.”
Despite Feazel’s confidence in Georgia, an interesting contrast exists: Notre Dame has established itself as one of the top teams against the spread, while Georgia struggles in that category.
The Fighting Irish hold a record of 12-1 straight up (SU) and 11-2 against the spread (ATS), while Georgia stands at 11-2 SU and a disappointing 4-9 ATS.
New Year’s Eve Party
The CFP quarterfinals kick off with No. 6 Penn State facing No. 3 Boise State at 7:30 p.m. ET on New Year’s Eve. Despite the Broncos earning a bye and the higher seed, oddsmakers have positioned the Nittany Lions as significant 11-point favorites in the Fiesta Bowl.
“We opened with Penn State at -10, briefly adjusted to -9.5, then saw enough action to push it up to -11,” Feazel shared. “An 11-point spread is tricky, and it will likely fluctuate between 10-13 leading up to the weekend.”
Boise State boasts a record of 12-1 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, while Penn State, fresh off a 38-10 victory over No. 10 SMU as a 9-point home favorite, is 12-2 SU and 7-7 ATS. Both teams have had mixed results covering the spread, although Penn State has shown improvement with a 4-2 ATS record in the last six games.
“As of now, the betting action has been limited,” Feazel reported. “Most of the bets are coming in on Boise State and the Under, but the public will likely favor the Nittany Lions.”
Betting the Big ‘Dog
The matchup between No. 5 Texas and No. 4 Arizona State features the largest point spread in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds. The Longhorns (12-2 SU/8-6 ATS) are favored by 14 points against the Sun Devils (11-2 SU and ATS).
Texas recently secured a solid 38-24 victory over No. 12 seed Clemson as 13.5-point home favorites, while Arizona State earned a first-round bye into the Peach Bowl, set for 1 p.m. ET on New Year’s Day.
“In this case, we’re seeing some money coming in on Arizona State, especially on the moneyline,” Feazel noted, adding that he anticipates strong public support for Texas on the point spread.
With the Sun Devils sitting at +400 on the moneyline, a $100 wager would yield a $400 profit (total payout of $500) if ASU manages to pull off the upset. While it’s a challenging task, the potential payout could be substantial if Arizona State rises to the occasion.
On-Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone successfully picked Notre Dame -7 in their 27-17 win over Indiana in the first round. He has his sights set on the Texas vs. Arizona State matchup in the quarterfinals.
Texas was expected to be a playoff contender, while Arizona State’s journey has been unexpected. The Longhorns are the only team to reach the playoffs in consecutive seasons, whereas the Sun Devils, who only won three games last season, were predicted to finish last in their conference this year.
As Texas stands as a 13.5-point favorite against Arizona State and their dynamic 34-year-old head coach Kenny Dillingham, Stone believes the Sun Devils could pose a significant challenge. He advises taking the generous points with ASU at +13.5.
“Arizona State has turned into a reliable team for bettors this season. They are 11-2 against the spread, including a current streak of six consecutive covers,” Stone explained, noting that during this run, ASU has exceeded the spread by an average of 16 points. “The market continues to underestimate this team.”
Arizona State’s standout running back, Cam Skattebo, has racked up 1,568 rushing yards, despite missing a game due to injury. He averages 6.0 yards per carry, while Texas’ defense is known for allowing only 104.5 rushing yards per game and just 3.1 yards per carry.
This matchup presents an intriguing clash of strengths.
“For the Sun Devils to keep it competitive, Skattebo will need to perform well on the ground,” Stone stated. “I’m counting on him to deliver.”
Coming Up Roses
The Rose Bowl, scheduled for a 5 p.m. ET kickoff on New Year’s Day, presents a matchup that feels traditional. Oregon, previously part of the Pac-12, faces off against the historic Big Ten powerhouse Ohio State. Both teams now compete in the Big Ten.
Interestingly, these teams have already clashed this season. In Week 7, Ohio State was a 3.5-point favorite in Eugene, but the Ducks emerged victorious with a narrow 32-31 win.
Now, on neutral ground, Ohio State (11-2 SU/7-6 ATS) is once again favored, despite Oregon’s perfect 13-0 record (7-6 ATS). Caesars opened the Buckeyes at -1, and the line has already climbed to -2.5.
“This is a revenge game for Ohio State, and they are eager for this matchup. However, Oregon is a formidable opponent,” Feazel remarked. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line reach 3, given the significant Ohio State action and the trend toward the Over.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Recently, the largest reported bet on College Football Playoff championship futures was placed on Texas. A bettor from Louisiana wagered $1.5 million on the Longhorns at +390 to win the national title.
For instance, after Notre Dame’s surprising 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois on September 9, a Caesars bettor seized the moment, placing a $500 wager on the Fighting Irish at +8000 (80/1) to win the national title.
If Notre Dame triumphs, that bettor stands to gain $40,000.
Currently, the Fighting Irish are positioned as the +550 co-fifth choice among the eight remaining teams. This means a bet of $7,273 would be required to achieve a $40,000 profit.
With Notre Dame anticipated to be competitive against Georgia in the quarterfinals, this ticket could prove valuable as the playoffs progress. The outcome will be closely watched as New Year’s Day approaches.
