2024 College Football Playoff action report reveals that the betting landscape is heating up as the first round approaches, set for December 20-21. With 12 teams vying for the title, Clemson has clawed its way into the playoffs as the No. 12 seed.
Despite being the largest underdog at 11 points against the No. 5 seed Texas, Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel suggests the Tigers may pose a challenge for the Longhorns. “I don’t think I’d want to play this Clemson team, with their experience being in these big games,” Feazel noted.
Clemson’s seventh playoff appearance is underscored by their previous success; they won two national titles in the four-team format under the guidance of coach Dabo Swinney. This experience could be pivotal as they face Texas.
Insights from bookmakers and sharp bettors shed light on the first-round odds, highlighting one of college football’s most storied rivalries while providing valuable betting nuggets.
Respected Money
After several days of analysis, two matchups have garnered significant attention at Caesars Sports: No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Notre Dame, and No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Ohio State.
The Hoosiers and Fighting Irish will kick off the playoffs at 8 p.m. ET on December 20. Indiana boasts an impressive record of 11-1 straight up (SU) and 9-3 against the spread (ATS), while Notre Dame matches them at 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS.
These teams rank among the best for bettors, with only Marshall having a better spread-covering record than Notre Dame. Caesars opened with Notre Dame favored by 8 points, quickly adjusting to -7.5 due to incoming bets.
“We’ve seen some Indiana money come in slightly, at +8. And that’s really kind of the sharp side,” Feazel explained.
While Notre Dame attracts public support, Indiana is drawing sharp action on the moneyline, indicating a split in betting strategies. “It’s mostly Notre Dame money on the spread and Indiana on the moneyline. So right now, we need Indiana to stay within the number and Notre Dame to win the game,” Feazel added.
The Tennessee vs. Ohio State matchup opened with the Buckeyes as 7-point favorites, quickly moving to -7.5. This shift has sparked interest among Vols bettors, including sharp action at Caesars on Tennessee +7.5 (-120).
“It’s mostly Tennessee money so far, a decent amount on the spread and a decent amount on the moneyline,” Feazel stated. “This matchup looks strong on paper, featuring two solid defenses that have performed well all season.”
“I don’t see this number moving up. If anything, it moves toward Tennessee. I think we’re gonna land on 7,” he concluded, as they prepare for the 8 p.m. ET kickoff on December 21. Ohio State enters with a 10-2 SU/6-6 ATS record, while Tennessee stands at 10-2 SU/7-5 ATS.
Fiddle in the Middle
The Clemson vs. Texas game remains stable with Texas holding as 11-point favorites at Caesars.
“People are either laying Texas -11 or taking Clemson on the moneyline,” Feazel remarked.
“This scenario is reminiscent of a Super Bowl middle. If bettors favor the underdog, they’ll likely opt for the moneyline at 2/1 or 3/1. Conversely, those favoring the favorite will stick to the point spread,” Feazel explained.
This situation creates a need for a middle ground, where Texas wins and Clemson covers the spread. The Tigers come into this game with a 10-3 SU/6-6 ATS record, while the Longhorns are 11-2 SU/7-6 ATS, preparing for their matchup at 4 p.m. ET on December 21.
The matchup between No. 11 SMU and No. 6 Penn State follows a similar trend. The Nittany Lions (11-2 SU/6-7 ATS) opened as 8.5-point favorites, fluctuating between -8 and -8.5 within hours.
As of Wednesday night, Penn State remains at -8.5 against SMU (11-2 SU/8-5 ATS), with a noon ET kickoff scheduled for December 21.
“It’s mostly Penn State money, with a bit of action on SMU’s moneyline. So again, the middle is favorable for the book right now,” Feazel noted. “I anticipate a surge in Penn State support as kickoff approaches.”
On-Campus Sharp Side
Betting expert Paul Stone is not yet focused on the College Football Playoff first-round odds. Instead, he is concentrating on the final game of the regular season: Navy vs. Army at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md.
Army has had a remarkable season, clinching the American Athletic Conference title and flirting with a College Football Playoff bid. The Black Knights stand at 11-1 SU/7-4 ATS, their only loss coming against CFP invitee Notre Dame.
Navy also had a solid year, finishing with an 8-3 SU/7-4 ATS record. The 125th meeting between these fierce rivals kicks off at 3 p.m. ET, with Army favored by 6.5 points.
Historically, the underdog has covered in eight of the last ten meetings. However, Stone recommends taking the points with Army. “I just like Army’s overall body of work better,” he stated. “Much of that centers around the play of its determined quarterback, Bryson Daly, who appears to be healthy.”
Daly leads Army’s rushing attack with 1,480 yards this season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and has scored 29 rushing touchdowns, the highest in the nation. The robust 6-foot, 220-pound Texan has also thrown for 877 yards, with eight touchdowns and just one interception.
“These games tend to be close,” Stone mentioned. “But I have confidence in this Army team, predicting a victory by double digits.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Wagers on long shots in College Football Playoff championship futures have attracted attention. One bettor holds three tickets at The SuperBook and one at Circa Sports on Boise State, with bets placed over the summer.
These four wagers total $1,300, and if the Broncos manage to pull off an upset and win the championship on January 20, the bettor stands to gain $1 million.
Caesars Sports has also seen substantial CFP futures bets. The largest wager came last week when a Louisiana bettor placed $1.5 million on Texas at +390 to win the national title.
Should the Longhorns triumph, the bettor would earn an impressive $5.85 million, totaling a payout of $7.35 million.
Additionally, a month ago, another Louisiana bettor placed a $50,000 wager on Georgia at +500 to win the title. If the Bulldogs clinch victory for the third time in four years, the payout would be $300,000.
These substantial payouts highlight the excitement surrounding the upcoming matches. Readers can return in six weeks to see how these bets unfold.
