The picture of the college football national championship has lost some of its clarity as two programs poised to make it to the CFP suffered losses that seemingly put them out of contention.
The Clemson Tigers lost to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish by a final score of 35-14, removing them from the undefeated ranks.
The Alabama Crimson Tide, already losing to the Tennessee Volunteers, lost their second overtime game last weekend to the LSU Tigers.
The odds posted on CFP betting sites and the top ranked teams now look very different from last Friday.
CFP futures starting November 4, 2022
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CFP futures quotes for November 9, 2022
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The same applies to the latest rankings released by the College Football Playoffs Selection Committee.
CFP Rankings – November 4th
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CFP Rankings – November 9th
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The Tennessee Volunteers lost their epic SEC showdown to the Georgia Bulldogs over the weekend, but they still have a good chance of making it to the CFP because they play in the same conference division as UGA.
Because of this, Georgia will move on to the SEC championship game, where they will most likely face the now 7th-ranked LSU Tigers. That means if the Volunteers win, they’ll only have to suffer a single loss against the nation’s No. 1, a status that should surely see them through to the College Football Playoffs.
The waters will get murky when LSU ends up winning the SEC, leading to a situation where the conference champion has two losses and contains two other one-loss teams.
The TCU Horned Frogs remain undefeated and are now fourth overall after last weekend’s reorganization. However, college football online sportsbooks are predicting them as the sixth most likely team to win the 2022 CFP National Championship, with less likely odds than the Oregon Ducks.
The Big Ten’s third-ranked Michigan Wolverines and No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes will go head-to-head on Nov. 26 in a college football rivalry weekend.
The College Football Playoff National Championship sports betting sites have yet to produce betting lines between Michigan and Ohio State, but it’s safe to assume the Buckeyes will be favored for two reasons – their position in current CFP futures and the fact that the game is going ahead played at Ohio Stadium.
Most betting assumptions are based on NCAAF National Championship futures, but the following college football prop bet looks only at each program’s chances of making the CFP bracket.
Chances of making 2022-23 CFP bracket
- Georgia (#1) -900
- Ohio State (#2) -700
- Tennessee (#5) -200
- Michigan (#3) +140
- Oregon (#6) +250
- Clemson (#10) +330
- USC (#8) +330
- UCLA (#12) +475
- LSU (#7) +650
- TCU (#4) +800
- North Carolina (#15) +950
- Alabama (#9) +1600
- Utah (#13) +2000
- Mississippi (No. 11) +4500
Three of the top four teams have negative money line odds. Tennessee appears to have a good chance of making the playoffs as long as they can win their remaining games against Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
There’s also still a chance that both Michigan and Ohio State will be included in the CFP bracket, but that depends on how the final weeks of the season play out.
College Football Playoffs Betting Odds – Bovada.LV
Source – College Football Playoffs official website