NFL playoffs: Home-field advantage plays a significant role in postseason outcomes. Throughout the regular season, teams compete fiercely to secure favorable seeding, which ultimately influences their playoff journey. During an intense 18-week battle, franchises strive to carve out the most advantageous path toward the Super Bowl.
As another wild-card weekend approaches, marking the fifth year of the expanded 14-team playoff format, it’s time to examine the statistics and trends that define this thrilling phase of the NFL season.
How much does home-field advantage really matter in the playoffs?
The answer is clear: over the past three years, teams with higher seeds playing at home have enjoyed a notable advantage, boasting a 14-4 record in wild-card matchups. Among the four upsets on opening weekend since 2021, only one, the sixth-seeded 49ers, has progressed beyond the divisional round.
However, this trend has not been consistent. In the three years from 2018 to 2020, home teams struggled, finishing with a disappointing 4-10 record in wild-card games.
The NFL’s playoff structure currently rewards only the top team in each conference with a first-round bye. This season, the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions claim that privilege. In three of the last four years, both top seeds have advanced to host their respective conference championships. The exception was the unpredictable 2021 season, where both the Titans and Packers, despite being top seeds, fell by narrow margins in the divisional round, paving the way for a mix of lower-seeded teams in the championship games.
Over the past four years, half of the No. 1 seeds have made it to the Super Bowl, yet only one — the 2022 Chiefs — has emerged victorious. This trend highlights the unpredictable nature of the playoffs, as three recent Super Bowl champions were not expected to advance past the divisional round based on their seeding: the Chiefs as a 3 seed, the Rams as a 4 seed in 2021, and the Buccaneers as a 5 seed in 2020, who triumphed after winning three road games.
How significant is home-field advantage overall? It may be less impactful than one might think. In the most recent season, home teams recorded a 145-127 win-loss record across 272 games, yielding a .533 winning percentage, comparable to a 9-8 team over a full season. This figure marks a slight decline from 2023, when home teams achieved a .555 win percentage, akin to a 5-4 record.
In 2023, every NFL division had at least a .500 home record. However, the AFC South finished with a 14-18 home record, and the NFC South at 15-21, while three other divisions ended with .500 records at home. Consequently, as the 2024 season approaches, only three of the eight divisions collectively held winning records at home.
Due to the NFL’s policy of granting division champions automatic home games, the home team may not always be the strongest competitor in certain first-round matchups. The Minnesota Vikings, with a historic 14-3 record as a wild card, are a 2.5-point favorite on the road against the Rams (10-7). Similarly, the Chargers (11-6) are favored by three points against the Texans (10-7). According to FOX Sports NFL Analyst Bucky Brooks, Minnesota ranks 4th in playoff team standings, significantly ahead of the Rams at 9th, while the Chargers sit at 8th, four spots above the Texans at 12th.
The performance of even the most accomplished playoff quarterbacks underscores the challenges of road games. Tom Brady, for instance, holds a playoff record of 35-13, but his true road game record stands at just 7-4, contrasting sharply with his 21-6 mark at home and 7-3 in Super Bowls.
Tom Brady led the wild-card Buccaneers to the Super Bowl LV title as a 5-seed, winning three road games. (Photo by Simon Bruty/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
This year’s top four seeds — the Chiefs, Lions, Bills, and Eagles — achieved a remarkable combined home record of 31-3, making it increasingly difficult for lower-seeded teams to mount successful playoff runs. However, surprises can still occur, as evidenced by the Buccaneers and Rams, both of whom had mediocre home records of 5-4, while the Texans posted a 5-3 record. Houston faces a Chargers team that performed better on the road (6-3) than at home, while the Buccaneers host a Washington team that also excelled on the road with a 5-3 record.
Greg Auman serves as an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports, having previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. Follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
