Since the turn of the century, fantasy football’s meteoric rise has propelled it into mainstream American pop culture. Every August (or earlier), fanatics across the country gather in person or online to add NFL players to their fantasy lists in hopes of winning a championship and the money that comes with it.
Over the past 20 years, several online providers have popped up offering hosting services for fantasy football leagues, either for a fee or a share of the total prize pool.
Domestic sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings made an industry splash in the 2000s with their Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) opportunities, which allowed cash payouts after a single day of action.
Legal NFL betting sites have now published lines directly relating to fantasy football results, which are paid out if the player being wagered on finishes at the top of the specified stat category.
Take, for example, the following line about the highest-scoring quarterback in Week 6 of the NFL season, published by Bovada Sportsbook. Players can bet on which QB will score the most fantasy points based on stats published on ESPN.
Week 6 Top Scoring Fantasy QB
- Josh Allen +225
- Kyler Murray +350
- Jalen hurts +400
- Lamar Jackson +400
- Patrick Mahomes +750
- Geno Smith +800
- Tom Brady +1000
- Justin Herbert +1500
- Joe Burrow +1800
- Daniel Jones +2200
The fascinating thing about these fantasy-related NFL prop bets is that the action is confined to the players on the board. That is, if there is a positional player who tops the entire lot in the prop above, it will not affect the outcome as only those on the list can win.
Fantasy leagues are fairly consistent when it comes to quarterback scoring setups, but that’s not the case when it comes to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends scoring.
20 years ago, running backs dominated fantasy football because the league was littered with feature backs who averaged nearly 30 touches per game.
To spread the wealth a little more, many fantasy leagues chose to allow one fantasy point per reception caught, also known as PPR (point-per-reception). This scenario allows wide receivers and tight ends to match or exceed the stat totals and fantasy points that running backs routinely accumulate, and the following two lines illustrate how PPR can alter projections.
Week 6 Top Scoring Fantasy RB (Non-PPR)
- Saquon Barkley +200
- Nick Chubb +500
- Christian McCaffrey +600
- Dalvin Cook +700
- Rhamondre Stevenson +750
- David Montgomery +800
- Jonathan Taylor +800
- Jeff Wilson Jr +900
- Joe Mixon +900
- Alvin Kamara +1000
Week 6 Top Score Fantasy RB (PPR)
- Saquon Barkley +250
- Christ McCaffrey +350
- Austin Thanks +500
- Joe Mixon +600
- Nick Chubb +700
- Alvin Kamara +800
- Leonard Fournette +850
- Jonathan Taylor +1000
- Rhamondre Stevenson +1100
- Dalvin Koch +1400
Comparing the two NFL bet lines above, readers will note that San Diego Chargers running back Austin Ekeler ranks third in PPR odds but is not listed among non-PPR options.
Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook and Rhamondre Stevenson’s status is also greatly elevated due to their receptivity.
Aside from the occasional reverse or direct snap, wide receivers in the NFL largely rely on football being thrown their way to gather stats.
Some WRs are deep threats and produce large stat totals on 3-4 catches, while others run shorter distances and receive the ball more often. The following two lines show that Justin Jefferson and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown are much better bets when PPR is factored into the equation.
Week 6 Top Scoring Fantasy WR (Non-PPR)
- Cooper coup+300
- Stefan Diggs+300
- Yes’Marr Chase+400
- Justin Jefferson+400
- Deebo Samuel+750
- DK Metcalf+900
- Tyreek Hill+900
- Marchioness Brown+1000
- Mike Evans+1800
- Courtland Sutton+2000
Week 6 Top Score Fantasy WR (PPR)
- Cooper Coup+250
- Justin Jefferson+400
- Stefan Diggs+400
- Yes’Marr Chase+500
- Marchioness Brown+700
- CeeDee Lamb+800
- Tyreek Hill+800
- Courtland Sutton+1200
- DK Metcalf+1400
- Deebo Samuel+1500
Tight ends aren’t affected as much by the points-per-receipt rules as the position usually involves shorter routes and more catches. An interesting non-PPR option for this week is New Orleans Saints QB hybrid Taysom Hill to enter the odds.
Week 6 Top Score Fantasy TE (Non-PPR)
- Mark Andrews +190
- Travis Kelce +200
- Tyler Higbee+750
- Zach Ertz +750
- Taysom Hill +800
- David Njoku +1000
- Dawson Knox+1000
- George Kittle +1000
- Kyle Pitt’s +1600
- Pat Freiermuth +1800
Week 6 Top Scoring Fantasy TE (PPR)
- Mark Andrews +180
- Travis Kelce +200
- Tyler Higbee+600
- Zach Ertz +750
- George Kittle +900
- David Njoku +1000
- Pat Freiermuth +1000
- Dallas Goedert +1500
- Hayden Hurst +1600
- Kyle Pitt’s +1800
Hill cannot be relied on for a set number of receptions, and some fantasy sites may not allow him to be inserted as a tight end. That’s not a problem at Bovada, so consider putting some action on Taysom Hill as you ponder your NFL betting strategy this weekend.
ESPN, Bovada Sportsbook