At 12:10 p.m. EST, the final game between the Milwaukee Brewers (79-56; 39-31 away) and Cincinnati Reds (64-72; 32-38 home) is set to begin. This Sunday showdown occurs at Great American Ball Park. After a dominant performance on Friday, where the Brewers swept a doubleheader with an impressive 19-4 scoreline, they have now claimed 8 out of 11 matchups against the Reds this season. Will the Reds manage to turn the tides in their favor before the season wraps up?
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Milwaukee’s Dominance
The Brewers, riding a four-game winning streak, have imposed their will on the Reds throughout the season, boasting a 4-1 record at Cincinnati. This success is largely attributed to their robust offense, which ranks fifth in runs per game at 4.89. In Great American Ball Park, they are averaging an astonishing 8.60 runs. Their lineup excels, sitting second in walk rate, third in stolen bases, and seventh in stolen-base percentage. Additionally, Milwaukee is seventh in batting average, third in on-base percentage (OBP), and 13th in slugging percentage. However, their 23.1% strikeout rate (18th) is a noticeable concern. Can they continue to dominate the Reds?
Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s pitching staff experienced their best month of the season in August, posting a 3.22 ERA. Tobias Myers aims to carry that momentum into September. In his only outing against the Reds, he limited them to three hits, no walks, and no runs. Throughout the second half of the season, he maintains a 2.72 ERA and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. The Brewers have won four of Myers’ last five starts. Milwaukee’s bullpen also shines, ranking second in ERA and eighth in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Will they replicate their August success as September begins?
Key Injuries – Christian Yelich (out)
Cincinnati’s Challenges
The Reds have stumbled, losing seven of their last nine games as they enter the final stretch of the season. Despite the youthful talent on the roster, 2024 has not met expectations. The absence of key starting pitchers, including Hunter Greene (an All-Star), Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft, and Nick Lodolo, significantly hampers their efforts. With the starter for this game likely to be a minor-league call-up, Cincinnati faces a tough challenge. Given their relievers are ranked sixth in WAR and 11th in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a bullpen game might be necessary if the Reds can secure a long start on Saturday. How they approach the Brewers will be crucial.
Cincinnati’s offense averages 4.47 runs per game (15th) this season, but their performance dips at home, where they hold a low .228 batting average. The Reds are eager to improve their hitting on Sunday to leverage their speed. They rank fifth in stolen-base percentage and second in total stolen bases, while also managing the 12th-most home runs. Despite these strengths, they struggle in batting average (26th), OBP (23rd), slugging percentage (16th), and strikeout percentage (23rd). Will they find their rhythm against Milwaukee?
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Best Bets for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
This season has clearly favored Milwaukee, and surprisingly, they perform even better on the road. Myers effectively shut down the Reds in his previous start, delivering 7.1 innings without allowing a run. Milwaukee boasts a strong bullpen, while Cincinnati’s offense struggles to generate runs at home. With the Brewers averaging 8.60 runs in Cincinnati this year, a spot starter or bullpen game for the Reds may not suffice. Expect the Brew Crew to secure another win, potentially by multiple runs.
