The Miami Marlins are set to challenge the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday at Target Field, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. CT.
The Twins enter the matchup as -178 moneyline favorites, and the total runs for the game is projected at eight.
Miami (57-99 SU, 73-83 RL, and 82-69-5 O/U) will send right-hander Edward Cabrera to the mound. The 26-year-old has a record of 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 19 appearances (91.1 IP) this season.
Minnesota (81-75 SU, 71-85 RL, and 79-70-7 O/U) will counter with righty Simeon Woods Richardson, who is 5-5 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his 27 starts (132.2 IP).
In the last 30 days, the author holds a record of 64-44 (+20.82 units) with premium betting picks. Readers are invited to subscribe for insights and updates, and follow on X for more information.
*This article was written prior to the conclusion of Tuesday’s game.
Cabrera’s Challenges Against Atlanta
The Marlins recently lost two of three against the Atlanta Braves, marking their fourth consecutive series loss. After winning the opening game 4-3, they dropped the following two matchups, further complicating their season with an 18-34 record against divisional rivals.
Currently, the Marlins sit over 40 games under .500, with a troubling 27-48 record on the road and a 30-62 mark during night games. This month, they have struggled with a 7-13 record and are 24-36 in the latter half of the season. Fans are left wondering if the team can turn things around after a postseason appearance last year.
Cabrera will take the mound on Wednesday after a tough outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he allowed seven runs on four hits and five walks in just 2.1 innings. His road record stands at 3-5, with a 5.71 ERA and 1.44 WHIP across nine starts. Notably, Cabrera has never faced the Minnesota Twins before and holds a 102:49 K:BB ratio over his 91.1 innings pitched this season.
For winning strategies on the baseball slate, check out the MLB Free Picks available.
Twins Under Pressure to Perform
The Minnesota Twins have also faced difficulties, having lost two of three critical games against the Boston Red Sox, which has hindered their American League Wild Card aspirations. They have been inconsistent recently, with three losses in their last four series, putting their postseason chances at risk. The upcoming games against Miami and Baltimore will be vital for their playoff hopes.
At Target Field, the Twins have a home record of 42-33 and a 43-49 record in evening competitions in 2024. They currently sit at 8-13 for September and have a 27-33 record since the All-Star break.
Woods Richardson will be the starting pitcher for the Twins, boasting a 1-2 record with a 3.90 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 12 home starts this season (62.1 IP). In his last game against Cleveland, he held them to one run over 4.2 innings while striking out six batters. Like Cabrera, Woods Richardson has not faced the Marlins yet this season and has a K:BB ratio of 115:47 in 132.2 innings.
Targeting the Best Bets for Marlins vs. Twins
Betting Trends: The Minnesota Twins hold a 26-37 (41.3%) record against the run line as home favorites and a 17-26 (39.5%) record in interleague games this season.
Woods Richardson started the season strong, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his first eight starts during April and May. However, his performance has declined, with ERAs of 4.50 in June, 4.62 in July, 4.21 in August, and 5.17 in September. Over this stretch, he has secured only three victories and has a cumulative ERA of 4.56 along with a 4.55 xFIP. The Twins’ bullpen has struggled as well, posting a 4.92 ERA (24th) and a 1.45 WHIP (24th) in the last month.
Though Cabrera had a rough outing recently, he had allowed just one earned run across his previous three starts before facing the Dodgers. In those prior five starts, he permitted only seven earned runs while striking out at least six batters in three of those games. The Twins have had offensive issues recently, ranking 29th in wOBA (.275) and 28th in wRC+ (78). Meanwhile, the Marlins are showing some resilience, sitting 12th in wOBA (.309) and 16th in wRC+ (95) during the same timeframe.
Given these insights, placing a wager on the Twins’ moneyline does not appear promising, and the run line may also be risky. At -128 odds, the best option seems to be betting on the Marlins to cover (+1.5), with a potential sprinkle on them for an outright win at +164 odds!
