This weekend’s three-game series between the Baltimore Orioles (83-64, 41-31 away) and Detroit Tigers (75-72, 37-35 home) carries significant playoff stakes. The Orioles currently occupy the top wild-card position in the American League, while the Tigers find themselves 3.5 games short of the final playoff spot. Despite an 8.0-game gap between the two teams, a series of six matchups in the next two weeks could quickly shift the standings. The first encounter is set for Saturday at 6:10 p.m. EST at Comerica Park. With Detroit gaining momentum, the question remains: Can they maintain their upward trajectory against a playoff contender?
Baltimore’s Path to Regaining Momentum
Though the Orioles currently hold a wild-card position, they are just 2.0 games behind the AL East leaders. The opportunity to claim the best record in the Junior Circuit is still within reach. However, following a rough stretch where they lost four out of five games, Baltimore must find a way to turn things around. On Saturday, they will rely on ace Corbin Burnes, a pivotal addition for crucial moments like this. After struggling in August, he has rebounded, allowing only two runs in his last two starts. Burnes boasts a 3.18 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and 1.146 WHIP for the season. However, the challenge lies with Baltimore’s bullpen, which currently ranks 21st in ERA. They sit at 11th in FIP and 13th in WAR. Will this team manage to string together some victories again?
On the offensive side, the Orioles have dipped slightly in performance during the second half of the season but remain one of the most potent lineups in Major League Baseball. They average 4.9 runs per game, placing them fourth in the majors. Their batting average ranks 10th, while their on-base percentage (OBP) is 11th. They also excel in slugging percentage, ranking third, and home runs, sitting second overall. Anthony Santander has emerged as a key player with 41 home runs and an impressive .885 OPS since the All-Star break. As a team, they’re 13th in strikeout rate, 16th in walk rate, and 18th in stolen bases. The question is whether they can capitalize on scoring opportunities in Detroit.
Key Injuries – Jordan Westburg (out); Jorge Mateo (out); Ryan Mountcastle (out); Ramon Urias (out); Heston Kjerstad (out)
Detroit’s Surge Towards the Playoffs
The Tigers enjoyed a six-game winning streak at the end of August, and although their four-game winning streak was snapped on Thursday, they have made impressive strides, surpassing every American League team other than the six currently in playoff positions. Achieving a playoff spot is now the goal. In 2024, the Tigers have relied heavily on their pitching to secure victories. They have yet to announce Saturday’s starting pitcher, but the pitcher-friendly conditions at Comerica Park should work in their favor. Their bullpen ranks highly, sitting sixth in ERA, 10th in FIP, and 15th in WAR. They also maintain a lower walk rate than any other bullpen in the league. Can this be enough to stifle the Orioles’ offense?
Offensively, the Tigers have shown improvement in the second half of the season, averaging 4.30 runs per game. However, they still rank 17th in scoring (4.27 runs per game) overall this season. Their batting average is 24th, OBP is 28th, and slugging percentage is 22nd. The team also struggles with strikeouts, ranking 21st, and has hit the 23rd most home runs. Their walk rate and stolen bases sit at 24th and 25th, respectively, while their hard-hit rate is the lowest in the league at 26th. Despite these challenges, the Tigers have found ways to win games recently. They must keep the momentum going if they hope to return to the postseason after a long absence.
Key Injuries – Javier Baez (out)
Best Bets for Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Corbin Burnes appears to be regaining his form, having surrendered only four runs (three earned) in 11.0 innings this September. However, he has allowed multiple runs in nine consecutive starts. The Tigers are likely to score a few runs against him and face a Baltimore bullpen that struggles, ranking 21st in ERA.
On the flip side, the Tigers will contend with an Orioles lineup that has managed just 15 runs in their last seven games. Notably, 11 of those runs came at Fenway Park, which offers much more favorable hitting conditions than Comerica. With the Orioles’ lineup in a slump, Detroit’s pitching staff should be able to keep them at bay. Expect a tight contest that may extend into extra innings. Betting on the Tigers’ run line could be a wise choice.
