The San Diego Padres (65-52; 35-23 away) and Miami Marlins (43-74; 23-38 home) are set to face off for the last time in the 2024 season. Both teams have made significant trades this year, and on Sunday, they will meet at loanDepot park at 1:40 p.m. EST. Following a victory on Friday, the Padres currently lead the season series against the Marlins 3-1. Can they secure another win to close out their meetings for the year?
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San Diego Aiming for the Top Spot
The Padres are now just 2.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the standings. Facing a team that’s not in contention, this game is crucial for San Diego to maintain pressure on their rivals. Dylan Cease will take the mound, hoping to lead the team to victory. He currently holds the record for the most strikeouts among MLB pitchers. Despite a recent start being cut short, he has allowed only one run and six hits over his last 28.2 innings. Cease also boasts a 2.83 ERA in day games, making him a reliable option for this matchup. San Diego’s bullpen ranks fifth in FIP and ninth in WAR. It will be interesting to see how they perform against the Marlins on Sunday.
The Padres’ batting lineup is averaging 4.74 runs per game, placing them 11th in the league. They lead all teams in batting average and strikeout rate. With Fernando Tatis Jr. sidelined, former Marlin Luis Arraez has stepped up significantly. The Padres also rank seventh in on-base percentage, ninth in slugging, 12th in home runs, and 13th in stolen bases. Despite having one of the lowest walk rates in the league, this San Diego team remains a formidable offensive threat.
Miami Looking to Play Spoiler
The Marlins have already missed out on postseason play this year. With the season winding down, their focus shifts to building for the future while attempting to disrupt their opponents’ chances. Mex Meyer is set to start, aiming to adapt to the pace of MLB pitching. Since his return in late July, he has struggled, giving up 13 runs in 13 innings, resulting in a 5.10 ERA for the season. However, Miami’s bullpen has performed surprisingly well, ranking second in FIP and WAR. Can they thwart San Diego’s hopes for the NL West title?
Offensively, 2024 has not been kind to the Marlins. They are averaging only 3.63 runs per game, placing them 29th in the league and making them the least productive offense in the National League. Their walk rate is the lowest in MLB, and they sit at 29th for home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Their .237 batting average is 22nd in the league. With inconsistent strikeout and stolen base statistics, scoring runs has been a major challenge for this team.
Best Bets for San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
Dylan Cease has been nearly unhittable in his recent outings. In his last five starts, only one team has managed to get multiple hits against him, much less score runs. San Diego’s bullpen also shows strength, particularly against a struggling Marlins offense that ranks 29th in scoring.
On the other side, the Padres will face a rookie pitcher who has allowed as many runs as innings pitched since late July. Meyer has given up at least three runs in each of his last three starts. San Diego is likely to score early and often, taking advantage of a Marlins bullpen that has been weakened due to trade moves. The Padres are expected to win this game comfortably by several runs.
