The Jacksonville Jaguars are set to face the Houston Texans this Sunday at NRG Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET.
Houston enters the matchup as 5.5-point favorites, with the total points expected to reach 44.5.
Jacksonville (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U) suffered a significant defeat against Buffalo last Monday, falling 47-10. Earlier this season, they lost 20-17 to Miami and 18-13 to Cleveland.
In contrast, Houston (2-1 SU, 0-2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U) faced a tough loss last week against Minnesota, where they were overpowered with a score of 34-7. The Texans had previously secured victories over Indianapolis (29-27) and Chicago (19-13) in the opening weeks.
Last season, the Jaguars and Texans split their two regular-season encounters. Houston claimed a decisive 37-17 victory in the first meeting held in Florida, while Jacksonville edged out a 24-21 win in their second clash in Texas.
Jaguars Struggle to Find Their Footing
Jacksonville’s recent performance has left fans anxious. In their game against Buffalo, they fell behind early, trailing 34-3 by halftime. This lack of competitiveness raised doubts about quarterback Trevor Lawrence (21-for-38 passing for 178 yards, one touchdown, and one interception), who now faces the pressure of turning around his team’s fortunes. The 4th-year QB has not won in his last eight starts, and the Jaguars have struggled historically against the Texans, with Houston leading 10-2 in their last 12 matchups. Buffalo’s defense limited Jacksonville to 239 total yards and a mere 3.5 yards per play, including a disappointing 2.9 yards per pass.
“It’s really shocking. Very disappointed. You hate to say it, but the reality is we’re not very good right now,” head coach Doug Pederson stated candidly. “I need everybody to coach and play better. Let’s leave it at that.”
Jacksonville’s statistics paint a concerning picture: they average just 13.3 points (30th in the league) and 276.3 total yards (27th), including 160.7 passing yards (27th) and 115.7 rushing yards (16th). Lawrence’s completion rate stands at 52.8% for 560 yards (6.3 average), with two touchdowns and one interception. The offensive line has allowed him to be sacked 11 times, including five sacks in the recent loss. Running back Travis Etienne leads the ground game with 164 yards (4.6 average) and two touchdowns, while Brian Thomas Jr. tops the receiving corps with 11 catches for 189 yards and one touchdown.
Defensively, the Jaguars allow an average of 28.3 points (29th) and 361.7 total yards (27th) per game, with 252.3 passing yards (30th) and 109.3 rushing yards (11th). They have recorded five sacks but remain without any interceptions or fumble recoveries, resulting in a turnover differential of -3.
Key injuries: DB Darnell Savage (quad) is expected to play, while TE Evan Ingram (hamstring) and LB Foyesade Oluokun (foot) are doubtful. WR Gabe Davis (shoulder), RB Tank Bigsby (shoulder), LB Devin Lloyd (knee), CB Jarrian Jones (shoulder), OT Cam Robinson (knee), OT Anton Harrison (knee), and CB Montaric Brown (chest) are all listed as questionable.
Texans Hope to Recover at Home
Houston is reeling from a heavy defeat against Minnesota, where they struggled on both offense and defense. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud threw two interceptions and was sacked four times during the game. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Sam Darnold threw for four touchdowns without any turnovers, and the Texans continue to search for their first win against the Vikings in six attempts.
“The Texans helped the Vikings a lot,” head coach DeMeco Ryans commented after the game.
Houston has shown some promise this season, averaging 18.3 points (21st) and 341.0 total yards (10th) per game. Their passing game ranks 8th with 232.3 yards, while they average 108.7 rushing yards (17th). Stroud has a completion rate of 67.7%, totaling 709 yards (7.2 average), with four touchdowns and two interceptions under his belt. Running back Joe Mixon, who missed last week, leads the team with 184 yards and one touchdown on 39 carries. Wide receiver Nico Collins has emerged as a key target, catching 18 passes for 338 yards and one touchdown.
Defensively, the Texans yield an average of 24.7 points (23rd) and 260.7 total yards (4th) per game, with 163.0 passing yards (6th) and 97.7 rushing yards (7th). They have achieved 13 sacks and three interceptions this season, maintaining a zero turnover differential. Defensive end Will Anderson Jr. stands out with 2.5 sacks and four tackles for loss.
Key injuries: RB Joe Mixon (ankle) is doubtful, while RB Dameon Pierce (hamstring), WR Nico Collins (hamstring), WR Tank Dell (chest), DT Foley Fatukasi (shoulder), TE Dalton Schultz (ankle), and DB Jimmie Ward (groin) are questionable.
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Strategic Bets for Jaguars vs. Texans
Betting Trends: Jacksonville has a record of 2-7 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine games and 4-8 ATS in its last twelve contests against Houston.
Despite splitting their meetings last season, the Texans have had the upper hand in recent matchups. They are likely to bounce back after last week’s disappointing showing against Minnesota, aiming for a strong victory against a struggling Jaguars team.
Houston possesses an explosive offense that can exploit Jacksonville’s weak secondary, currently ranked 30th in the league. The Texans’ defense is formidable against both the pass and the run, which could make it challenging for Lawrence to regain his form on a short week following Monday’s collapse. Although the Texans allowed four touchdowns to Darnold last week, they managed to limit him to under 200 passing yards, showcasing their defensive resilience.
Expect Houston’s offense to start strong at home during this divisional clash. Even if Mixon or Pierce are sidelined, Cam Akers can provide sufficient support in the running game, allowing Stroud the opportunity to shine against Jacksonville’s defense. If Houston can replicate the first-half success seen against Buffalo, they could build a comfortable lead heading into the second half, leading to a win and a cover.
