The Atlanta Braves (0-1, 0-1 RL, 0-1 O/U) find themselves at a critical juncture as they face elimination against the San Diego Padres (1-0, 1-0 RL, 0-1 O/U) in game two of the NL Wild Card series on Wednesday evening. Max Fried will take the mound for the Braves, while the Padres counter with Joe Musgrove. The Padres secured a solid 4-0 victory in game one and hold a 4-3 advantage in the season series against Atlanta.
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Atlanta Braves Seek Redemption
Max Fried will look to lead the Braves to a much-needed victory. In his last appearance, he dazzled with 8.2 scoreless innings against the Royals, earning a win. Fried has been consistent lately, allowing two or fewer runs in three of his last five games. He boasts a 3.25 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, along with an 11-10 record over 174.1 innings. However, he struggled against San Diego earlier in the season, giving up three runs in 4.1 innings during a 3-1 loss. Historically, Fried has performed well against the Padres, posting a 2.30 ERA and a 3-1 record in 31.1 career innings against them.
The Braves are adjusting after a whirlwind travel schedule. After a doubleheader against the Mets on Monday, they arrived in San Diego late Tuesday morning. In game one, they had to start rookie AJ Smith-Shawver, which did not yield the desired outcome. Despite this, the Braves had a successful series against the Padres in July, winning two of three games. However, their offense has been inconsistent, failing to convert opportunities during game one, going 0 for 3 with runners in scoring position.
Ozzie Albies is a vital player for Atlanta. The second baseman has had a down year, hitting 10 home runs with 53 RBIs and a .707 OPS. He managed to get on base with a single in Tuesday’s loss and contributed two RBIs against San Diego earlier this season. Marcell Ozuna also poses a threat; he excelled against the Padres in the regular season, with four RBIs and a remarkable 1.3 OPS. Ozuna went 1 for 4 in the series opener.
The Braves’ offense averages 4.35 runs per game, ranking them 15th overall. However, their pitching remains a strong point, with a solid 3.50 ERA, placing them second in the league.
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San Diego Padres Aim for Series Sweep
Joe Musgrove is set to pitch for San Diego in game two. Musgrove had a strong finish to his season, limiting the Dodgers to just two runs in 6.1 innings, although it resulted in a no-decision for the Padres. After missing two months due to an elbow injury, he has returned to form, posting a 2.51 ERA this month. For the season, he has a 3.88 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP with a record of 6-5 over 99.2 innings. Musgrove has faced the Braves before, with a 4.29 ERA and a 3-1 record in 42 career innings.
The Padres have an opportunity to swiftly end the series. In their previous matchup against Atlanta, they scored a total of eight runs in three home games. Game one showcased their power, featuring home runs from Tatis Jr. and Higashioka, contributing to their four runs. San Diego’s success has largely been due to their pitching, allowing three or fewer runs in five straight home games. Their bullpen has maintained a 3.78 ERA throughout the season.
Jake Cronenworth is proving to be an asset for the Padres, especially in the playoffs, where he has two home runs, nine RBIs, and a .776 OPS across 18 games. Jurickson Profar is also having a breakout season, hitting 24 home runs and driving in 85 runs with an .839 OPS. Profar faced the Braves this season, contributing two RBIs but went 0 for 3 in game one.
San Diego averages 4.70 runs per game, ranking them eighth in the league. Their pitching staff has been particularly effective in September, with a 3.86 ERA, placing them 11th overall.
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Best Bets for Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
The Atlanta Braves find themselves in a must-win situation to extend their postseason journey. This season, they have only won three out of eight encounters against the Padres, including a 4-0 defeat in game one. The Padres have displayed confidence and teamwork throughout the season.
Braves pitcher Max Fried has struggled against the Padres this year, allowing three runs in just 4.1 innings. His postseason performance has also been underwhelming, with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 65 playoff innings. In contrast, Joe Musgrove brings valuable playoff experience, having pitched effectively in the 2022 postseason with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 18.2 innings. Currently, Musgrove is on a hot streak with a 2.51 ERA in his last five outings, which bodes well for a potential series sweep for the Padres.
