Can Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, and Bo Nix really lead their teams to the playoffs? The answer lies in their performances and the circumstances surrounding them. Rookie quarterbacks often signify a rebuild, but this season, the Washington Commanders, Chicago Bears, and Denver Broncos are challenging that narrative.
These three teams are defying expectations, each boasting winning records after five games, despite starting rookies. They stand at the threshold of playoff contention, showcasing the potential for a shift in the traditional trajectory of rookie quarterbacks.
Their journeys to success have varied significantly. In Washington, Jayden Daniels has electrified the Commanders (4-1), playing a pivotal role in their position atop the NFC East. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams has shown flashes of brilliance for the Bears (3-2), injecting new life into a struggling franchise. On the other hand, the Broncos (3-2) are managing to win with Bo Nix, largely due to a formidable defense. Notably, Drake Maye will make his first NFL start for the Patriots this weekend, but their playoff prospects appear dim.
Regardless of the path taken, reaching the playoffs is the ultimate goal. Historically, rookie quarterbacks have faced significant challenges in this regard. Since the Super Bowl era, only 14 teams with a rookie starting at least 10 games have made it to the playoffs. Remarkably, only three have achieved this feat since 2013: Dak Prescott with the Dallas Cowboys (2016), Mac Jones with the New England Patriots (2021), and C.J. Stroud with the Houston Texans (2023).
The last time three rookie quarterbacks led their teams to the playoffs in the same season was in 2012, with Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks), Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts), and Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins) all making the postseason.
Can Daniels, Williams, and Nix join that exclusive club? Let’s examine their individual prospects and playoff chances:
Washington Commanders/Jayden Daniels
Daniels has emerged as one of the league’s standout rookies. He leads the NFL with a remarkable 77.1% completion rate and is the first player to surpass both 1,000 passing yards (1,135) and 250 rushing yards (300) in his initial five games. His QBR of 73.2 ranks third in the league, highlighting his effectiveness.
Additionally, the Commanders’ defense has performed admirably, currently ranked 14th, bolstered by a pass rush that has recorded 15 sacks, placing them eighth in the league.
Playoff outlook: For the Commanders, maintaining a .500 record for the remainder of the season would secure them at least 10 wins, likely enough for playoff contention. With a solid coaching staff and a balanced offensive and defensive strategy, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on their opportunities. If Daniels continues to perform at this level, their playoff chances look promising, especially if rivals like the Eagles or Cowboys stumble.
Chicago Bears/Caleb Williams
Recent performances have sparked optimism in Chicago, particularly as Williams, the top overall pick, begins to showcase his potential. His standout performance last Sunday, throwing for 304 yards and two touchdowns in a decisive 36-10 victory over Carolina, has fans hopeful.
If Williams can maintain this upward trajectory, the Bears could have the tools necessary for a playoff push, especially with a top-10 defense backing him. However, consistency will be key.
The road to the playoffs: Currently sitting at the bottom of the NFC Central, the Bears face a challenging path ahead. They have yet to engage in division play, meaning tough matchups against the Vikings (5-0), Lions (3-1), and Packers (3-2) loom. Additionally, they will face formidable opponents like San Francisco, Washington, and Seattle. After a Week 10 home game against the Patriots, their schedule offers little respite.
Playoff outlook: The Bears’ playoff chances appear slim, given their competitive division. Even with a potential win against the Jaguars, Williams must elevate his game significantly for Chicago to remain in contention. The division’s strength poses a considerable hurdle, and the Bears will need Williams to replicate his recent performance consistently to have a shot.
Denver Broncos/Bo Nix
For Sean Payton, known for his offensive acumen, this season presents a unique challenge. The Broncos have managed to secure three consecutive victories, despite Nix’s modest performance, completing just 56 passes for a total of 482 yards.
In one notable game against the Jets in London, the Broncos won 10-9 with Nix completing only 48% of his passes for a mere 60 yards.
The success of the Broncos largely stems from their defense, which ranks third overall and is tied for sixth in turnovers (eight) and third in sacks (19). Payton’s coaching has transformed Nix into a game manager, as evidenced by his lack of interceptions in the past three games.
The road to the playoffs: The Broncos’ schedule appears manageable outside of their two matchups with the Kansas City Chiefs. They face several teams that are considered beatable, including the Chargers, Saints (without Derek Carr), Panthers, Falcons, Raiders, and Browns. A strong defense that creates turnovers could provide the necessary wins to keep them competitive.
Playoff outlook: Winning consistently in the NFL typically requires effective quarterback play, which poses a challenge for the Broncos. Nix’s performance has been lackluster, primarily focusing on avoiding mistakes. Without significant improvement in his play, the Broncos may exceed expectations but fall short of playoff contention.
