As the regular season winds down, the Milwaukee Brewers (83-61; 41-32 away) and the San Francisco Giants (71-74; 40-33 home) prepare for their final showdown of the year. Milwaukee has won three of their previous four encounters, aiming to secure another victory on Thursday night. The Giants will rely on the home-field advantage at Oracle Park, with the game set to start at 9:45 p.m. EST. Which team will emerge victorious in this crucial matchup?
Brewers on the Brink of Division Glory
Currently, the Brewers hold an impressive 8.5-game lead in their division, the largest margin in Major League Baseball. Their magic number is now in single digits, bringing them closer to clinching the division title. Milwaukee will turn to Frankie Montas, acquired from Cincinnati, to further lower that number. Montas has posted a 3.92 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and a 1.205 WHIP since joining the Brewers, contributing to five victories in his seven starts. His previous outing in Oracle Park saw him surrender five runs (four earned) over 4.2 innings. If he can improve on that performance, Milwaukee can count on a bullpen that ranks second in ERA and eighth in WAR to seal the win. Can this strategy lead to another victory for the Brewers?
Offensively, the Brewers have few concerns, even in the absence of Christian Yelich. This team continues to shine as a scoring powerhouse, averaging 4.82 runs per game (6th overall), with their OPS climbing to .741 when playing away. They rank second in walk rate, third in stolen bases, and fifth in stolen-base percentage. Additional statistics include ninth in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage (OBP), 13th in slugging percentage, and 16th in home runs. However, a 23.1% strikeout rate (17th) is a point of concern. Will they manage to generate enough offense to leave California on a winning note?
Key Injuries – Christian Yelich (out)
Giants Struggling in the Standings
While the Brewers enjoy a comfortable lead, the Giants find themselves trailing by 8.5 games in the wild-card race, suggesting a bleak outlook for 2024. A major issue for San Francisco has been a pitching staff that failed to meet expectations. Injuries have compounded the problem, leading to rookie Hayden Birdsong stepping into the rotation. Birdsong will make his 13th career start on Thursday, with a disappointing 5.19 ERA, 5.41 FIP, and 1.500 WHIP across his first 12 outings. Since August began, he has lost all six of his starts, failing to pitch beyond 4.2 innings. His last game against Milwaukee ended in a 6-0 defeat, where he allowed five runs. The Giants’ bullpen, while sixth in FIP, stands only 18th in ERA and 23rd in WAR. Can they effectively challenge the Brewers?
San Francisco’s offense has not been much more compelling. The team averages 4.26 runs per game, placing them 18th in the league. Their batting average improves slightly at home (.247), but they sacrifice power, ranking 21st overall. The Giants also sit at 18th in OBP and 19th in slugging percentage, with 154 home runs (19th) and a dismal 61 stolen bases (30th). Their stolen-base success rate of 74% ranks 28th in the league. Despite having the ninth-best walk rate, their strikeout rate stands at 20th. Will they break through their recent struggles in this matchup?
Key Injuries – Wilmer Flores (out)
Best Bets for Brewers vs. Giants
In their previous encounter on August 29, Birdsong pitched just 3.2 innings in Milwaukee, allowing five runs. Given that the Brewers’ offense averages 5.00 runs per game on the road, this does not bode well for the rookie. The Giants’ bullpen, ranked 18th in ERA, is likely to struggle against a potent Milwaukee lineup.
Montas has shown improvement in his time with the Brewers (3.92 ERA) and, coupled with a formidable group of relievers (2nd in ERA), will likely present challenges for the Giants’ inconsistent offense. Milwaukee’s pitchers are expected to perform effectively. A victory for the Brewers seems probable in this contest.
