Wednesday night marks the conclusion of a pivotal three-game series as teams vie for a wild-card spot. The Atlanta Braves (71-60; 35-32 away) visit Target Field for their first match against the Minnesota Twins (72-59; 37-27 home) since 2019. The game is slated to begin at 7:40 p.m. EST. The first game of the series turned into a high-scoring affair, ending with a 10-6 victory for Atlanta. Fans are left wondering if a similarly thrilling showdown awaits on Wednesday.
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Braves on an Upswing
As they prepare for a potentially critical series against Philadelphia, the Braves have found their rhythm. Monday’s win pushed their record to 7-2 in the last nine games. Atlanta will rely on Cy Young hopeful Chris Sale for Wednesday’s game. The left-handed pitcher leads National League pitchers with 14 wins and boasts an impressive 2.62 ERA. Sale ranks first in FIP (2.08) and strikeout percentage (32.7%) among qualified MLB pitchers. Remarkably, he has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last 13 starts. Following Sale, Atlanta has a bullpen that ranks second in FIP, second in ERA, and fifth in WAR. Can Atlanta keep the momentum going?
Despite missing their star player, Ronald Acuña Jr., the Braves are making the most of their current roster. Key players like Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Travis d’Arnaud, and Michael Harris II are also sidelined. Nevertheless, the team is averaging 4.25 runs per game, ranking 17th in the league. August has proven to be their most productive month, with an OPS of .763. This season, the Braves are 17th in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage, and 12th in slugging percentage, but they have hit the fourth-most home runs. However, they also rank last in stolen bases, sitting at 20th in walk rate and 23rd in strikeout rate. Will the Braves continue their offensive success, even while shorthanded?
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Twins Struggling to Capitalize
On the other hand, Minnesota has stumbled recently, losing five of their last seven games. Despite this downturn, they remain just 2.5 games behind the Guardians, though they have fallen to third place behind the Royals. With Cleveland’s struggles, the Twins find themselves in a position to challenge for the top spot, but they need to seize the opportunities ahead. David Festa will take the mound on Wednesday, a rookie with a 5.20 ERA, 4.24 FIP, and a 1.321 WHIP over 36.1 innings this season. The positive aspect is that Festa has not surrendered more than three earned runs in his last six starts. The bullpen, ranked fifth in FIP and seventh in WAR, will also play a significant role in the outcome, especially after Monday’s performance.
The Twins thrive at home, averaging 5.05 runs per game and a .793 OPS. For the season, they rank eighth in runs scored, averaging 4.87 per game. Missing key players like Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Max Kepler, the current lineup still maintains a strong batting average and ranks eighth in on-base percentage and sixth in slugging percentage. They sit seventh in home runs but face challenges with base running, ranking 26th in stolen bases and 24th in stolen base percentage. Will the Twins find a way to keep their offense productive despite the absences?
Best Bets for Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins
It’s a tough matchup for a rookie like Festa against an experienced pitcher like Sale. The Twins’ bullpen has already logged 7.0 innings in the series, which could be a challenge against a potent Braves lineup. Atlanta’s offense is likely to make a significant impact on Wednesday.
With Sale’s impressive streak of holding 13 consecutive opponents to two or fewer earned runs, the Braves might not need to score much to secure a win. Atlanta’s bullpen is among the top five in both ERA and FIP, providing a solid safety net in the later innings. It may be wise to bet on the Braves covering the run line on the road.
