New York Mets (66-61) vs. San Diego Padres (72-56)
The MLB betting action heats up on Friday, August 23, 2024, as the New York Mets face off against the San Diego Padres in a critical National League matchup at Petco Park, San Diego, CA, with the first pitch scheduled for 9:40 PM ET.
This contest marks the second game in a four-game series, with Thursday’s opener excluded from today’s analysis. The Padres are slight -120 moneyline favorites, while the total runs are set at 7.5.
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Mets in Pursuit of a Wild Card Spot
The New York Mets are displaying determination as they have recently clinched two consecutive series victories over the Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles, achieving a 4-2 record in that stretch. Currently at 66-61, the Mets sit just 1.5 games shy of the final wild-card spot in the National League.
During these two series, New York has accumulated 26 runs, showcasing a batting line of .237/.335/.474, which includes eight doubles, two triples, and 11 home runs in 190 at-bats. Also noteworthy is their bullpen’s performance, tossing 13 innings with an impressive 2.08 ERA and a 3.55 FIP.
On the mound for the Mets will be Paul Blackburn. The 30-year-old right-hander holds a 5-3 record with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 13 starts this season, totaling 73 innings. Since joining the Mets at the trade deadline, Blackburn has managed a 1-1 record across four starts, allowing 11 runs (nine earned) in 22 innings.
He is coming off a commendable performance against the Marlins, where he pitched six innings, allowing just one run on four hits, although the Mets fell 3-2 in that contest.
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Padres Aim for the Top of the NL West
The San Diego Padres faced a setback recently, suffering an 11-4 defeat against the Minnesota Twins, thus missing the chance to sweep a three-game series at Petco Park. With this loss, the Padres’ record dropped to 72-56. As of Thursday morning, San Diego was tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second spot in the NL West, trailing the LA Dodgers by four games.
In their past six games, the Padres have accumulated 29 runs, posting a .265/.336/.446 batting average, with nine doubles, two triples, and eight home runs across 204 at-bats. Their bullpen has shone during this period, achieving a 2.11 ERA and a 1.80 FIP in 21.1 innings.
Projected to start for the Padres is Joe Musgrove, who holds a 3-4 record with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 12 starts this season, totaling 58 innings. After spending more than two months on the injured list, Musgrove returned to the rotation on August 12 and has performed impressively in his last two outings, giving up only one earned run over 8.2 innings.
Analyzing the Matchup and Best Bets
Joe Musgrove’s track record against the Mets includes a 2-5 record with a 4.84 ERA across six career starts and one relief appearance. The current Mets lineup has managed only 26 hits in 121 at-bats against him, which includes five doubles and six home runs. Musgrove has demonstrated resilience since returning from his elbow injury, making him a challenging opponent.
In contrast, Paul Blackburn faced the Padres once back in 2018, with the current Padres batting 7-for-21 against him, including one double. Blackburn has had a modest 5.59 ERA in seven away starts this season.
This match could swing in either direction, given that both teams have displayed strong batting recently. Over the last ten days, the Mets recorded a 144 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and 88 wRC+ against lefties, while the Padres achieved a 104 wRC+ against righties and an impressive 156 wRC+ against lefties.
Backing the Padres may be wise due to their solid relief pitching, featuring three capable left-handed relievers who could influence the outcome as the season progresses.
