Five teams built to beat the Chiefs: No. 3, C.J. Stroud’s Texans. This marks the third installment in a five-part series examining the quarterbacks and teams poised to challenge Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who are eyeing an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl win. Following Jalen Hurts and the Eagles at No. 5 and Brock Purdy with the 49ers at No. 4, the Texans emerge as formidable contenders.
The Texans have shocked the NFL landscape.
After struggling with four or fewer wins for three straight seasons, they turned the tide by clinching the AFC South last year. They also triumphed in the playoffs, decisively defeating the Cleveland Browns in a wild-card game, accumulating a total of 11 wins in a transformative 2023 season.
Under the leadership of DeMeco Ryans, a 2023 Coach of the Year finalist, and with C.J. Stroud delivering one of the most impressive rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history, the Texans have significant potential. Their trajectory in just the second year of a rebuild positions them as serious challengers to the Chiefs in the AFC.
The Texans made strategic moves by acquiring Pro Bowl wide receiver Stefon Diggs and star running back Joe Mixon. They also bolstered their defense by signing Pro Bowl edge rusher Danielle Hunter, standout defensive lineman Denico Autry, and middle linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair during free agency.
Houston boasts a potentially elite receiving trio, featuring Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell. With the addition of Mixon and tight end Dalton Schultz, Stroud has dubbed this group a “five-headed monster.” Once Autry returns from his six-game suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy, the Texans are expected to field one of the most formidable defensive fronts in the league.
Why Stroud and the Texans could defeat the Chiefs in a potential AFC Championship Game matchup
Last season, the Chiefs’ offense struggled against zone coverage, with Mahomes recording eight touchdown passes against ten interceptions, resulting in an 85.5 passer rating. In contrast, he excelled against man coverage, throwing 19 touchdowns with just four picks and achieving a 110.6 rating. Notably, Travis Kelce and key receivers Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown combined for zero touchdowns against zone coverage.
Brown, who is expected to miss several weeks due to a shoulder injury, faced difficulties against zone coverage last season. His catch rate of 56.1% ranked him 82nd out of 93 qualified wide receivers. The quarterbacks targeting him in zone coverage managed a lowly passer rating of 57.6.
While Houston’s overall statistics in zone coverage last year were not stellar—ranking 22nd in EPA allowed, 24th in rushing yards allowed per game, and 30th in passing yards allowed—they did find some success. They tied for 15th in points allowed in zone, ranked ninth in takeaways, and were second in red-zone efficiency.
Derek Stingley Jr., Houston’s standout cornerback, is well-positioned to thrive against Kansas City in zone coverage. He recorded four of his five interceptions in this coverage type last season and allowed only a 52.0 passer rating in zone. His ability to neutralize Rice, Brown, or rookie Xavier Worthy could force Mahomes to overly depend on Kelce.
While relying solely on the Mahomes-Kelce connection is not a guaranteed path to victory for the Texans—or any team—it does enhance their chances. Reducing Mahomes’ options increases the likelihood of success against one of the league’s most potent offenses.
Offensively, the Texans can optimize their strategy using 11 personnel, featuring Diggs, Dell, Collins, Mixon, and Schultz on the field simultaneously.
Despite their explosive performance last season, the Texans’ offense struggled against man coverage. Stroud completed only 53.7% of his passes against man, compared to a 67.2% completion rate against zone. This inconsistency highlights the significance of adding Diggs, a skilled route-runner who can enhance the Texans’ performance against man coverage.
The Chiefs ranked 21st in pass defense against man coverage last season, making them vulnerable. This weakness could prove pivotal when facing the Texans’ dynamic “five-headed monster.”
The Texans’ potential to capitalize on these opportunities makes them a team to watch as they prepare to challenge the Chiefs.
Five teams that can prevent a Chiefs three-peat:
- No. 1: TBD
- No. 2: TBD
- No. 3: C.J. Stroud/Texans
- No. 4: Brock Purdy/49ers
- No. 5: Jalen Hurts/Eagles
