Bookmakers are seeing a significant amount of Under action on the Dallas Cowboys as they prepare for the upcoming NFL season. With Bill Belichick’s departure from the New England Patriots, the landscape of betting has shifted dramatically, particularly for teams like the Cowboys, who are under scrutiny after a disappointing playoff exit.
Current odds from various sportsbooks indicate that the Patriots have the lowest win total for the 2024 season, set at either 4.5 or 5 wins. Unsurprisingly, many bettors are leaning toward the Under.
John Murray, the executive director of The SuperBook, shared insights on the shifting perceptions around the Patriots. “The sentiment seems to be that the Patriots might not be aiming for victory this year,” he noted. “They are in a competitive division where the other teams believe they have a shot at the Super Bowl.”
Murray, along with risk supervisor Chase Michaelson, provides an overview of NFL win totals, highlighting three teams attracting Under bets and three teams seeing Over interest.
Let’s explore this intriguing betting landscape!
Regular Season Win Totals: Under
New England Patriots
The Patriots are coming off a challenging 4-13 season, tying with Arizona and Washington for the second-worst record in the league, just ahead of Carolina’s 2-15 mark.
In an attempt to revitalize the roster, New England selected quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. While Maye has potential, he currently sits behind veteran Jacoby Brissett on the depth chart.
Even with Maye at the helm, the rookie quarterback faces the challenge of leading a team with limited offensive support. The SuperBook originally set New England’s win total at 5, with both Over and Under priced at -110. This means a $110 wager on either side would yield a $100 profit ($210 total payout).
Currently, the Under is favored at -150, while the Over sits at +130.
“There’s a strong trend of betting Under 5, with odds at -110 and -135,” Murray remarked, indicating that sharp bettors are anticipating fewer than five wins for New England. “A considerable amount of money is being wagered on the Under for the Patriots.”
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys remain a team that garners strong opinions from fans and bettors alike. Known for their popularity, the Cowboys faced a disappointing end to their 2023-24 season.
After finishing the regular season with a solid 12-5 record (10-7 against the spread), they suffered a painful home loss to Green Bay in the wild-card round.
Additionally, ongoing contract negotiations with quarterback Dak Prescott have raised concerns, as he is set to enter free agency after this season. This uncertainty has influenced bettors regarding the Cowboys’ win totals.
Initially, the Cowboys’ win total was set at 10.5, with the Under favored at -120. They have since dropped to a total of 10 wins, with the Under now favored at -130.
Michaelson noted, “The Under action on Dallas has been significant. The Cowboys are always a team that divides opinions, and this offseason is no exception. The uncertainty surrounding Dak Prescott following their playoff loss has certainly contributed to this trend.”
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have recently experienced a quarterback competition between veteran Gardner Minshew and second-year player Aidan O’Connell, with Minshew being named the Week 1 starter by head coach Antonio Pierce.
Expectations for the Silver and Black are not particularly high. The SuperBook initially set their win total at 7, with both Over and Under priced at -110. Currently, the Raiders are at 6.5, with the Over favored at -130 and the Under at +110.
Michaelson commented, “We’ve seen a trend of Under bets on the Raiders. Their preseason performance has not inspired confidence, and Gardner Minshew doesn’t exactly excite the fan base.”
While preseason results often don’t predict regular season success, the Raiders have struggled, currently sitting at 0-2 SU and ATS, including a recent 27-12 loss to Dallas as seven-point home favorites.
Regular Season Win Totals: Over
Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders will start a rookie quarterback this season, as head coach Dan Quinn has named second overall pick Jayden Daniels the starter.
Michaelson noted, “When a top-five quarterback is drafted, it often leads to increased interest in that team for the following season. Plus, Daniels won the Heisman Trophy last year, making him a recognizable name from college football.”
However, the betting action on the Commanders’ Over 6.5 wins appears to be driven more by public interest than sharp money. “This is a public play for now,” Michaelson stated.
The SuperBook opened the Over at -120 and the Under at even money (+100). Despite the public backing for the Over, the odds have remained unchanged.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings may surprise some with their betting action. After losing starting quarterback Kirk Cousins to Atlanta in free agency, they drafted J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick and also signed Sam Darnold.
Despite not appearing to be a team on the rise, the Vikings’ win total is set at 6.5, and bettors are optimistic they can surpass that number, even after McCarthy was ruled out for the season due to a torn meniscus.
The Over 6.5 wins opened at -120 at The SuperBook, and it has since moved to -135, indicating that a $135 wager would yield a $100 profit ($235 total payout).
Michaelson pointed out, “I don’t believe J.J. McCarthy’s early betting action was significant, as he wasn’t expected to start. We’ve observed some Under money since his injury, but it’s unclear if that’s directly linked to McCarthy.”
Detroit Lions
In the NFC North, the Detroit Lions have captured the public’s attention since the middle of the 2022-23 season. Over their last 30 games, the Lions have been impressive, boasting a 22-8 straight-up record and an impressive 23-7 against the spread.
The Lions came close to making their first Super Bowl appearance last season, narrowly losing to San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game with a score of 34-31. This season, their win total opened at 10.5, with the Under favored at -130 and the Over at +110. The odds have since shifted, with the Over now favored at -120 and the Under at even money (+100).
Michaelson remarked, “There is a lot of excitement surrounding the Lions. They were so close to reaching the Super Bowl last season, making them a team that many neutral bettors are rooting for.”
