Will Aaron Judge hit 500 home runs? Last Wednesday, Aaron Judge made headlines by smashing his 300th career home run in fewer at-bats than any player in Major League Baseball history. This impressive feat sparked teammate Juan Soto’s hopeful remark: “I hope he breaks the home run record.”
Achieving the milestone of 500 home runs has historically been a ticket to the Hall of Fame, with only 28 players in this exclusive club. Miguel Cabrera was the last player to reach this prestigious mark in 2021, and currently, only one active player has surpassed 380 home runs.
In light of this, Fox Sports examined 18 active power hitters who are in the running for 500 home runs, assessing their chances of joining this elite group.
LIKELY
Aaron Judge (32 years old): 301 HRs
Bryce Harper (31): 332 HRs
Juan Soto (25): 194 HRs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (25): 155 HRs
Judge’s trajectory suggests he is not only likely to reach the 500 home run milestone but could also be a contender for the 600 club. As for Harper, despite his lengthy tenure in the league, he remains younger than many realize. This is his sixth season with the Philadelphia Phillies, and with an average of 33 home runs per year, he could potentially reach 500 by 2030. Betting against Harper at this point seems unwise.
Soto’s youth and impressive plate discipline position him as a strong candidate for 500 home runs. He is just six home runs shy of the 200 mark and won’t turn 26 until late October. With the potential for further growth in his game, especially after he finds a long-term home in free agency, Soto may well elevate his performance to unprecedented levels.
IF HEALTH PERMITS
Giancarlo Stanton (34): 422 career HRs
Mike Trout (33): 378 career HRs
Shohei Ohtani (30): 210 career HRs
Stanton, Trout, and Ohtani possess the talent to join the 500 home run club but face significant challenges due to their injury histories. For Ohtani, balancing his two-way responsibilities complicates his durability, and he would need to maintain an average of 40 home runs per season for the next seven years to approach 500. Trout, once considered a lock for this milestone, now faces doubts due to increasing time on the injured list.
50/50
Manny Machado (32): 332 career HRs
Pete Alonso (29): 219 career HRs
Rafael Devers (27): 199 career HRs
Yordan Álvarez (27): 154 career HRs
Ronald Acuña Jr. (26): 165 career HRs
Fernando Tatis Jr. (25): 120 career HRs
Alonso has been a consistent presence since his debut in 2019, but as he approaches his 30s, concerns over a potential decline in power loom. Devers is on track to surpass 200 home runs before his 27th birthday, yet he has yet to hit 40 in a season, which may hinder his chances at the 500 mark compared to others.
UNLIKELY
Paul Goldschmidt (36): 359 career HRs
Freddie Freeman (34): 338 career HRs
Nolan Arenado (33): 338 career HRs
Kyle Schwarber (31): 274 career HRs
Matt Olson (30): 251 career HRs
For these players, the path to 500 home runs appears steep. Schwarber’s future power output is uncertain as he ages, while Goldschmidt and Arenado seem to be experiencing the twilight of their careers. Although Olson’s remarkable 54-home run season last year was impressive, he is still far from the 500 mark and may need to focus on other achievements in his career.
