2025 Men’s March Madness odds suggest that favorites dominate the tournament landscape.
This year’s competition has seen only a handful of upsets, with just three games featuring teams seeded higher than three slots pulling off surprises: 12-seed McNeese triumphed over 5-seed Clemson, 11-seed Drake bested 6-seed Missouri, and 10-seed Arkansas overcame 2-seed St. John’s.
That’s the extent of the unexpected outcomes.
Some might argue about 12-seed Colorado State defeating 5-seed Memphis, but with the Rams closing as a 3-point favorite, it hardly qualifies as an upset.
This leads to a pressing question: Will underdogs ever make a comeback?
“No,” stated Ed Salmons, vice president of risk at Westgate SuperBook, in an interview with FOX Sports. “It’s been really disappointing compared to where we were after last Saturday.”
John Murray, Salmons’ colleague, shared a similar viewpoint.
“It would be nice if an underdog could disrupt some of these parlays this weekend,” he remarked from his office in the sportsbook. “But I doubt it.”
Favorites in the Sweet 16 were flawless, going 8-0 on the moneyline, reinforcing the notion that betting on favorites is a safe bet. There was much buzz in the betting community about pairing Duke ML with Alabama ML or Houston ML with Tennessee ML.
Any combination of favorites seemed to yield positive results.
Upset? Not really.
“I processed over 300 moneyline parlays on Friday,” Chris Andrews, director at South Point sportsbook, told FOX Sports. “Bets ranged from $10 to $5,000. We’re still in decent shape for the Tournament, but the last couple of nights have taken a toll.”
On Saturday, bettors flocked to place bets, opting for a Duke ML and Florida ML parlay.
It’s a common scenario, and there’s no way to counter it.
This strategy makes sense; bettors prefer to avoid laying 7.5 points with Duke or Florida when they can simply bet on them to win outright. It appears straightforward, but it has proven to be effective.
The sportsbooks are not the ones to be pitied.
Looking at the broader implications, the dominance of favorites raises concerns about the future of this iconic tournament. Are we witnessing the end of significant upsets by 13, 14, or 15 seeds? Will mid-major programs manage to retain their talent amid the influx of NIL money and transfer portal activity?
“I wonder if things will shift next year,” basketball analyst and bettor Tom Casale told FOX Sports. “However, after two consecutive years of chalk, it seems tough with around 700 players in the transfer portal.”
“San Diego State is losing its entire roster. Brian Dutcher built strong teams by retaining tough veterans for three to four years.”
A shame, indeed.
On Sunday, the favorites have shorter lines compared to Saturday, with Houston as a 3.5-point favorite over Tennessee and Auburn favored by 5 against Michigan State.
“It’s like booking a regular-season NFL game,” Salmons joked. “We just need to see any of these favorites lose Saturday or Sunday, and we’ll be thrilled.”
