“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
March Madness is upon us, and the Final Four is set to bring thrilling matchups. Chris “The Bear” Fallica shares his insights and predictions for the upcoming games. Here’s what he thinks about the action ahead.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Duke
In this high-stakes clash, picking against Duke could seem unwise.
Analyses from KenPom, Torvik, and Haslam suggest this matchup is essentially a toss-up. Duke has only faced defeat three times this season, while Houston has lost four times, with three coming in overtime. The matchup features Duke’s elite offense against Houston’s formidable defense, as highlighted by KenPom.
Houston’s physical players, such as Joseph Tugler and J’Wan Roberts, will challenge Duke’s Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, potentially limiting their scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, Houston boasts the second-best three-point shooting percentage in the nation at 39.7%. Despite a shaky start against Purdue in the Sweet 16, the Cougars have regained their form.
It’s essential to note that the ACC struggled this season, raising questions about Duke’s statistics. While the Blue Devils secured non-conference victories over teams like Auburn and Arizona, the Big 12 appears to have outperformed the ACC. Houston’s impressive performance in that conference, aside from a narrow OT loss to Texas Tech, is noteworthy.
With seven wins against top 15 KenPom teams, Houston’s track record is solid, whereas Duke has gone 4-0. The Cougars may also carry extra motivation from last year’s Sweet 16, where an injury to Jamal Shead derailed their chances against Duke when they were leading.
While Duke could very well win convincingly, there’s a chance the odds favor them a bit too much, potentially underestimating Kelvin Sampson’s resilient squad.
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 1 Auburn
Skepticism surrounds Johni Broome’s health, which could pose significant challenges for Auburn.
Despite hitting a three-pointer, Broome’s reluctance to fully engage on a critical rebound raises concerns about his effectiveness.
Earlier this season, Florida scored 90 points at Auburn, even without key players Alijah Martin and Micah Handgloten. If Broome isn’t at his best, Auburn’s defense could struggle significantly.
The Gators have capitalized on second and third opportunities, which has kept them in the tournament. The line remains surprisingly steady at Florida -2.5, but they are likely to score effectively. Auburn’s outside shooters will need to rise to the occasion to keep pace.
