2025 March Madness betting report reveals, “It’s a miracle we’ve done as well as we have,” reflects the sentiments of bookmakers as the tournament unfolded. The betting landscape had transformed into a spectacle reminiscent of an NFL Sunday, with fans eagerly placing their bets.
In this environment, the betting public gravitated towards favorites, especially in moneyline parlays, and many were rewarded for their choices.
“This Tournament wasn’t dominated by sharps. It was dominated by recreational players,” stated Jay Kornegay, a seasoned figure in the betting world with nearly four decades of experience, including two decades managing The SuperBook.
A few oddsmakers provided insights into the weekend’s happenings as March Madness progressed through the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds.
Playing Favorites
During the tournament’s initial four days, surprises were few. Favorites triumphed in 36 out of 48 matchups, setting the stage for the subsequent weekend.
Favorites went a perfect 8-0 in the Sweet 16 and 4-0 in the Elite Eight. Since March 23, when the momentum for favorite moneyline parlays surged, they have achieved an impressive 18-2 record straight up.
This success led to four No. 1 seeds appearing on the Final Four odds board.
As a result, many bettors found themselves cashing out significantly.
Kornegay, who has dedicated nearly 40 years to the betting industry, summarized the situation succinctly.
“Parity is the bookmaker’s best friend, and we just haven’t seen it this Tournament,” Kornegay noted. “Recreational bettors tend to favor the stronger teams, and the lack of upsets has made for challenging days for the house.
“A significant portion of those bets are tied to parlaying point spreads and moneylines.”
Kornegay has recently stepped back, passing the daily operations of The SuperBook to John Murray, who echoed his predecessor’s observations.
“It’s tough for the house to perform well with all these favorites winning. It led to some unfavorable parlay outcomes for us,” Murray remarked.
Dogged Pursuit
Despite the dominance of favorites, there were moments when upsets seemed possible in both the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. For instance, No. 4 seed Arizona made a valiant effort, overcoming a 19-point deficit against No. 1 seed and 9.5-point favorite Duke.
The Wildcats narrowed the gap to five points at 91-86 with 1:52 left but ultimately fell short, losing 100-93.
Additionally, No. 10 seed Arkansas led No. 3 seed Texas Tech by double digits several times in the second half. However, the Red Raiders, favored by 5.5 points, managed to tie the game at 72-72, forcing overtime and eventually winning 85-83.
On Friday, No. 2 seed Michigan State trailed No. 6 Ole Miss 47-39 with just over 12 minutes left. Yet, the Spartans rallied for a 73-70 win as 3.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, top seed Houston, favored by 8.5 points, narrowly defeated No. 4 seed Purdue 62-60.
In the Elite Eight on Saturday, another upset opportunity slipped away. Texas Tech, a 6.5-point underdog against No. 1 seed Florida, held a 75-66 lead with just over three minutes remaining. However, they were outscored 19-4 in the final moments, resulting in an 84-79 loss.
“We faced significant losses on parlays during Week 2, which has been a recurring theme this Tournament,” remarked Scott Shelton from BetMGM Nevada. “March Madness is famous for its upsets, so the weekend’s all-favorites outcome was quite surprising.”
Bookmaker Bright Side
The betting landscape was not entirely bleak for bookmakers. While moneyline favorite parlays thrived from Thursday to Sunday, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews found himself needing No. 1 seed Houston to win and cover against No. 2 seed Tennessee on Sunday. The Cougars, favored by 2.5 points, delivered with a commanding 69-50 victory.
Moreover, all four Sweet 16 games on Friday night saw the Under prevail, and three of the four Elite Eight games also favored the Under. Public bettors typically lean towards Overs, making these outcomes less favorable for them.
“We managed to come out ahead for the weekend. It’s a miracle we’ve done as well as we have, given the prevalence of these moneyline parlays that seem like free money every day,” Andrews stated.
Murray added, “We had a decent Sunday. Tennessee was a popular underdog pick, and the game staying under the total was beneficial for us.”
Rich Zanco, who leads college basketball trading for Caesars Sports, described this March Madness as a trade-off.
“We held our own on straight wagers. However, the public continues to excel with moneyline parlays,” Zanco noted.
Looking Ahead
On a positive note, the dominance of favorites has led to an exciting Final Four featuring only No. 1 seeds.
SEC rivals Florida and Auburn will kick off the semifinals at 6:09 p.m. ET Saturday, with the Gators as consensus 2.5-point favorites. Following that matchup, Houston will face Duke at 8:49 p.m. ET, with the Blue Devils favored by 4.5 points.
“The advantage of all these favorites winning is that we have an incredible Final Four lined up. There should be significant betting activity on these games,” Murray expressed.
Among the Final Four, Duke is favored to win the championship on April 7 in San Antonio. Given how this NCAA Tournament has unfolded for favorites, it wouldn’t be surprising if Cooper Flagg & Co. clinch the title.
However, oddsmakers may not be thrilled with that outcome. The Blue Devils are BetMGM’s largest liability in championship futures, and other sportsbooks likely share this concern.
“If Duke were to cut down the nets, it would be a fitting conclusion to this Tournament, but it would also be quite disappointing for the books,” Shelton concluded.
