2024 College Football Week 6 action report reveals unlikely College Football Playoff (CFP) contenders emerging from the shadows.
While fans yearn for thrilling matchups like Georgia vs. Alabama, this week offers a different flavor of excitement.
One team making waves is No. 25 UNLV, which is gaining attention for its surprising performance this season. They will face Syracuse at 9 p.m. ET Friday on FS1.
“Coach Barry Odom and UNLV were underrated, but the market is starting to catch up,” noted Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports. “There’s a lot of UNLV love going into Friday night.”
Running with the Rebels
Before Week 5, the Rebels announced a surprising change that sent ripples through the college football community. They began the season with an impressive 3-0 record both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).
However, starting quarterback Matt Sluka opted to leave the program, citing a dispute over Name/Image/Likeness (NIL) compensation and choosing to take a redshirt year.
In response, new starter Hajj-Malik Williams led the Rebels to a stunning 59-14 victory over Fresno State, where he threw for three touchdowns and added another on the ground.
“They lose their quarterback to an unforeseen circumstance, but the backup comes in, and they don’t skip a beat,” Feazel remarked.
Now, UNLV stands at 4-0 SU and ATS, earning a spot in the national rankings. The only other Group of 5 team ranked higher is Boise State at No. 21.
This ranking is significant, as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion secures a place in the College Football Playoff.
Currently, UNLV is a viable contender for that coveted playoff spot.
Yet, the Rebels must first focus on their upcoming game against Syracuse.
“Our power rating had this game at UNLV -3. We opened at -3.5 and have moved to -6.5, even touching -7 briefly,” Feazel explained. “I think this game should be competitive, and the market may have moved a bit too far.
“But we need Syracuse at this point. There’s big backing for the Rebels.”
College Football Rocks on FOX
In another exciting matchup, Penn State (4-0 SU/2-2 ATS) is set to host UCLA (1-3 SU/2-2 ATS) in Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff on FOX. The Nittany Lions opened as heavy favorites at 27.5 points, which increased to -28.5 on Monday and settled back at -27.5 by Wednesday night at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Despite the large spread, there’s significant interest in both teams. The Bruins have attracted 51% of point-spread wagers, while the same percentage is seen for the Nittany Lions.
On-Campus Sharp Side
Betting expert Paul Stone is focused on what many consider the biggest game of Week 6: No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 25 Texas A&M.
Despite the rankings, the Aggies (4-1 SU/1-4 ATS) are consensus 2-point home favorites against the Tigers (4-0 SU/2-2 ATS) in a noon ET Saturday kickoff.
Both teams have aspirations of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff, but Missouri appears to be in a stronger position. With one loss already, Texas A&M needs a victory to remain in the CFP conversation.
Stone believes Missouri is slightly overrated and anticipates that the Aggies, led by redshirt freshman quarterback Marcel Reed, will hand the Tigers their first loss of the season. He is backing A&M -2.
One of Stone’s key points is that Missouri lost five defensive players to the NFL Draft, including three in the first 100 picks: defensive end Darius Robinson (27th), cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (61st), and linebacker Ty Ron Hopper (91st).
Replacing such talent will be challenging.
“I believe Missouri’s defense will start to show some vulnerabilities against one of the tougher teams on their schedule,” Stone pointed out, noting that this matchup is also Mizzou’s first road game. “Missouri faced challenges earlier against two Power 4 opponents.
“Boston College led the Tigers by double digits midway through the second quarter, and Missouri needed double overtime to fend off Vanderbilt in their SEC opener.”
Missouri was a 17.5-point home favorite against Vanderbilt, narrowly escaping with a 30-27 double-OT win in Week 4. The Tigers had a bye last week.
College Football Quick Hitters
Feazel shared insights on two additional noteworthy matchups in college football Week 6:
- No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 25 Texas A&M: Caesars and other sportsbooks have the Aggies at -2 on Wednesday night. A&M opened at -2.5 on Sunday, dropped to -2/-1.5 briefly, and then returned to -2. “Not much action so far. Currently, we’re mainly seeing Under money.” The total opened at 49.5 and has decreased to 48.5.
- No. 12 Ole Miss vs. South Carolina: Ole Miss is coming off a surprising 20-17 home loss to Kentucky. The Rebels, previously ranked No. 6, were 15-point home favorites. Caesars opened the Rebels at -9 for their road game against the Gamecocks, with the line fluctuating to -9.5 at times. “We’re seeing action on Ole Miss at -9. But the Rebels face another tough defense with South Carolina. This won’t be an easy bounce-back game.”
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
As of Wednesday night, no significant wagers have been reported regarding college football Week 6 odds. However, that could change by Saturday.
An intriguing futures bet emerged for one of the service academies.
Navy, now competing in the American Athletic Conference, has started strong with a 4-0 SU record (3-1 ATS). As previously mentioned, the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion earns a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff.
While Navy is not a top contender for the national title, one Caesars Sports customer placed a $500 bet on the Midshipmen to win it all at +40000 odds (400/1).
If this unlikely scenario unfolds, that bettor stands to gain $2 million.
In theory, Navy could:
- Win the AAC Championship Game, finish as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, and secure a CFP bid.
- Lose a week later to Army.
- Compete in the first round of the CFP a week after that.
Additionally, Army is also 4-0 SU at this point (and 4-0 ATS). This sets the stage for a potential matchup between Navy and Army in the AAC championship game, with the winner possibly earning a CFP bid, followed by a rematch in their traditional rivalry game.
While this sequence of events seems improbable, teams like Boise State, UNLV, and James Madison will certainly have their say.
Still, it makes for interesting conversation among fans. Perhaps Air Force will complicate matters by upsetting Navy this week, as the Falcons are 10-point home underdogs in the high altitude of Colorado Springs.
