2024 college football odds suggest that recent history can significantly influence Heisman Trophy bets. With the season kicking off this weekend, there remains a window of opportunity for bettors to place their futures bets.
One of the most enticing betting markets in college football is the Heisman Trophy. As teams adapt to the new landscape of an expanded College Football Playoff and ongoing conference realignments, bettors can glean insights from the award’s 89-year history. Recent trends among Heisman winners reveal patterns that can guide future bets.
Before diving into current odds and potential candidates, it’s essential to review the history of the award.
The last 10 winners and their preseason odds
2023: Jayden Daniels (+1000)
2022: Caleb Williams (+600)
2021: Bryce Young (+800)
2020: DeVonta Smith (+10000)
2019: Joe Burrow (+4000)
2018: Kyler Murray (+3000)
2017: Baker Mayfield (+1000)
2016: Lamar Jackson (+10000)
2015: Derrick Henry (+2500)
2014: Marcus Mariota (+425)
Analyzing the odds, most winners were not clear favorites or extreme long-shots. Instead, they typically fell within the range of +1000 to +4000 on preseason betting lines. Notably, eight of the last ten winners had odds of +4000 or better.
As of Tuesday afternoon, 21 players currently boast odds of +4000 or better.
Which positions did the last 10 Heisman winners play?
Among the last 10 Heisman winners, eight were quarterbacks, with Derrick Henry as the sole running back and DeVonta Smith as the first wide receiver to win since 1991. This trend suggests that betting on a quarterback for the 2024 award is a wise strategy.
Currently, all 21 players with +4000 odds or better are quarterbacks, which complicates the selection process.
How many of the past 10 Heisman winners were on teams ranked in the preseason AP top 25?
Every Heisman winner in the last decade played for a team ranked in the preseason AP top 25. This fact poses a challenge for bettors considering Shedeur Sanders, the only player with +4000 odds not associated with a top 25 team.
How many of the past 10 Heisman winners were on teams ranked in the top 10 of the preseason AP top 25?
To find the eventual Heisman winner, bettors should primarily focus on the top 10 of the preseason AP top 25 poll. In the past decade, Lamar Jackson was the only winner not ranked in this group at the season’s start.
This narrows the field to eight players with +4000 odds or better: Dillon Gabriel from Oregon (+700), Carson Beck from Georgia (+750), Quinn Ewers from Texas (+1000), Will Howard from Ohio State (+1400), Jalen Milroe from Alabama (+1400), Jaxson Dart from Ole Miss (+1400), Riley Leonard from Notre Dame (+2200), and Drew Allar from Penn State (+3100).
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has highlighted Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin on his show, “Bear Bets.” However, Will Howard has been named the Buckeyes’ starting quarterback for the upcoming season. It’s also noteworthy that Andre Ware was the last Heisman winner who did not finish with a perfect record.
How many of the last 10 Heisman winners were transfers?
Half of the last 10 Heisman winners were transfers to their respective schools. This trend holds true for the last five quarterbacks to win the award: Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams, and Jayden Daniels.
This narrows the contenders to five: Gabriel, Ewers, Howard, Dart, and Leonard, all of whom transferred to their current schools. Florida State’s DJ Uiagalelei also fits this profile. Initially listed at +3100 odds, his chances fell to +6000 after Florida State’s upset loss to Georgia Tech. His performance was underwhelming, throwing for just 193 yards.
For those still optimistic about Uiagalelei, now might be a good time to place a bet. Interestingly, Daniels won the Heisman last year following LSU’s significant loss to Florida State.
If bettors are strategizing for Heisman wagers ahead of the 2024 season, recent trends indicate that a quarterback transfer starting for a top-10 team is the safest bet.
Last year’s voting results further support this approach, with Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix finishing second and third, respectively, after transferring and becoming Heisman finalists.
So, who remains in the running?
Nix’s resurgence at Oregon has sparked speculation that Gabriel could also elevate his game and emerge as a strong Heisman contender. Gabriel has recently become a betting favorite, drawing significant support from bettors. As of July 19, he was identified as the third-biggest liability for sportsbooks in the Heisman market, according to BetMGM.
The remaining candidates include Gabriel, Ewers, Howard, Dart, Leonard, and even Uiagalelei.
However, this does not guarantee that the eventual Heisman winner will be among these players. Other quarterbacks from top 10 teams, like Beck, or even those outside the top 10 could also secure the award. For instance, DeVonta Smith won the Heisman just three years ago with preseason odds of +10000.
A quarterback who threw for over 3,000 yards last season and accounted for 31 touchdowns—primarily through the air—could emerge as a dark horse. With three NFL-caliber receivers and a bolstered offensive line, the potential for standout performances is high.
Potential “Heisman moments” will be crucial. A significant matchup on November 9 in Oxford against Georgia could serve as a pivotal game for many candidates. Notably, the favorite has only won once in the past nine years, indicating that bettors should be cautious when placing their bets on frontrunners like Dillon Gabriel or Carson Beck.
For those analyzing past performances to predict a Heisman winner, the aforementioned quarterbacks are certainly worth considering.
