Yankees are still the favorites for Juan Soto, as the anticipation builds around several nine-figure contracts set to be negotiated shortly. Among these, Soto’s deal is expected to be the most significant. The questions remain: How substantial will it be? What will the duration look like? Which team will ultimately secure his services?
In light of these developments, FOX Sports MLB analysts Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar provide insights on Soto, alongside a few prominent pitchers, and discuss which teams may be the most proactive this winter in our latest roundtable.
1. Recent reports indicate Alex Bregman is aiming for a contract near Manny Machado’s 11-year, $350 million extension. If you were a general manager, what would be the maximum offer for Bregman, and which team should pursue him most aggressively?
Thosar: Bregman’s aspirations to match Machado’s extension seem a bit ambitious. I foresee him landing a deal with an average annual value of $26-28 million. If he seeks a long-term contract exceeding the $200 million threshold, a seven-year deal for $200 million appears feasible for the seasoned Astros third baseman. This figure represents my ceiling, given that Bregman would be 37 at the end of such a contract, and he has accumulated considerable wear since his MLB debut in 2016. Additionally, his walk rate has seen a significant decline this year, dropping to half of his career norm. While it’s hard to envision Bregman in a uniform other than Houston’s, the Phillies would greatly benefit from his presence, replacing Alec Bohm. With their core players approaching free agency, the Phillies are eager to secure a World Series title, and Bregman would undoubtedly enhance their chances.
The maximum offer would depend on various factors, including the team I manage and the payroll constraints. Ideally, I would appreciate the financial flexibility that A.J. Preller had when he extended Machado before Peter Seidler’s passing. Unfortunately, most general managers, including Preller now, face significant financial limitations. While Bregman should surpass the six-year, $151 million extension that Matt Chapman received in San Francisco, it would be surprising if he approached Machado’s $350 million deal. My maximum offer would hover around eight years in the $220-225 million range. The Astros are the frontrunners, but the Tigers and Mariners should also be in pursuit.
2. Would you prefer Corbin Burnes for $250 million over seven years, Blake Snell for $180 million over five years, or Max Fried for $150 million over five years?
3. A few weeks ago, both analysts believed Juan Soto would likely re-sign with the Yankees this offseason. How confident are they in that prediction now, and what are the projected terms of his deal?
Thosar: I maintain that the Yankees will ultimately secure Soto, although competition is heating up between the two New York teams. Hal Steinbrenner’s recent remarks during the owners’ meetings lacked strong assurance that Soto would remain in the Bronx. However, he emphasized that ensuring the slugger’s return is a top priority this offseason, and he may be willing to take bold steps to make it happen. I predict that Steve Cohen will escalate the bidding, potentially leading to a deal around $707 million over 15 years for Soto and the Yankees. They cannot afford to let Soto slip away, especially after his pivotal role in their World Series run, and I believe they will act decisively to avoid that mistake.
4. Would the Yankees be better off securing Soto on a megadeal or acquiring a frontline starter along with two other All-Star hitters?
Kavner: Soto is in a league of his own compared to the rest of the market. His impact on the Yankees lineup is immeasurable. In 2023, without Soto, they managed only 82 wins with a lackluster offense. However, in 2024, with Soto onboard, they soared to the World Series with a 94-win season and a top-three offense. While other factors contributed, Soto was the linchpin, creating the best 1-2 punch in the league. His production is irreplaceable.
Thosar: The Yankees, as the wealthiest franchise in MLB, shouldn’t limit themselves after signing Soto. Steinbrenner’s recent comments indicated that Soto had concerns about the Yankees’ player development and commitment to winning. The team recognizes the need to fill their gaps with elite talent this offseason. Before signing his long-term contract, Aaron Judge sought assurances from Steinbrenner regarding the club’s dedication to winning the World Series annually. Thus, it is in the Yankees’ best interest to secure Soto and subsequently add at least one mid-tier starter and an All-Star bat to replace Anthony Rizzo at first base.
5. Which playoff teams from each league are expected to make the most significant upgrades to their rosters this offseason? Which non-playoff teams are likely to do the same?
For non-playoff teams, the San Francisco Giants have expressed intentions to invest heavily for several offseasons, but previous attempts have fallen through. Under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey, this could be the year they make significant, impactful upgrades. In the American League, the Boston Red Sox are poised to reclaim their former glory. Whether that involves signing Soto or acquiring a top-tier starting pitcher, Boston must capitalize on this offseason after three consecutive years without postseason play.
Among non-playoff teams, two clubs from the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox, have already held meetings with Soto. Engaging in such discussions suggests a commitment to pursuing high-impact talent. After failing to secure Shohei Ohtani last winter and experiencing a disappointing 2024 season, the Blue Jays might be inclined to make substantial changes. Meanwhile, the Red Sox cannot afford another lackluster offseason if they wish to escape mediocrity. Additionally, keep an eye on the Giants and the Nationals as non-playoff teams that may also seek significant improvements.
