Both the Seattle Mariners and the St. Louis Cardinals entered Busch Stadium trailing by five games in their pursuit of a wild-card spot. The Mariners, holding a record of 71-70 and struggling with a 30-42 away performance, face a tough road as they are also 4.5 games behind in the AL West. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, with a record of 71-69 and a solid 36-32 at home, have shown some resilience by winning six of their last eight games. Each matchup this weekend could significantly impact their chances for October baseball. The clash is set for Saturday at 7:15 p.m. EST. Who will seize this vital opportunity?
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Is Seattle on the Brink of Elimination?
Once dominating the division in mid-June, the Mariners now find themselves in a dire situation where a postseason berth appears almost unattainable. A closer look at their offensive woes reveals that Seattle averages just 4.06 runs per game, ranking 26th in the league. Although they have improved their .691 OPS on the road, these numbers still leave much to be desired. The team’s biggest hurdles are their dismal batting average of .218 and an alarming strikeout rate of 27.3%, both the worst in baseball. Their on-base percentage and slugging stats are similarly poor, ranking 24th and 29th, respectively. However, the Mariners do boast a respectable walk rate of 9.4% (4th) and have made strides on the base paths with 119 stolen bases (9th) and 158 home runs (15th). The question remains: can they find a way to score runs in St. Louis?
Despite their offensive struggles, Seattle’s pitching has been commendable, particularly at home. However, their away stats tell a different story, with a 4.34 ERA on the road. Logan Gilbert, the starter for Saturday, has not been immune to these trends. He leads MLB in WHIP but carries a 3.95 ERA in his away games. In four road starts since the break, he has pitched 19.2 innings, allowing 23 hits and 23 runs (20 earned). The Mariners have yet to win any of those contests. While Seattle’s bullpen ranks 10th in ERA, they are 18th in FIP and 26th in WAR. Can this team effectively manage their pitching and fielding for a complete game away from home?
Cardinals on the Rise
A recent hot streak (6-2) against playoff-bound teams, including the Padres, Yankees, and Brewers, has kept the Cardinals in contention. With an easier schedule ahead, they might just catch up in the NL race. Historically, the Cardinals perform better at home, but Kyle Gibson is an anomaly in this trend. He will take the mound Saturday with a 5.24 ERA at Busch Stadium. In his last outing here, he allowed seven runs over just 4.1 innings. For the season, Gibson has a 4.26 FIP and a 1.348 WHIP. Following him, St. Louis can count on a bullpen ranked sixth in ERA, eighth in FIP, and 12th in WAR. Will they manage to contain Seattle’s hitters?
At the plate, the Cardinals have performed better in home games, posting a .717 OPS and averaging 4.32 runs per game, despite being 24th in runs scored overall. Their batting average ranks 13th, while their OBP sits 14th and slugging is at 21st. They are not known for stealing bases (22nd) or hitting home runs (23rd), and their walk rate is 23rd. However, entering the weekend, their strikeout rate is 11th. The Cardinals’ offense seems to have regained its form during this successful stretch, and maintaining this momentum could be key to securing a wild-card spot.
Key Injuries – Willson Contreras (out)
Best Bets for Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals
When the Mariners find success, it’s usually due to solid starting pitching. Unfortunately for them, Logan Gilbert has struggled, allowing at least four runs in every road start during the second half of the season. The Cardinals, who have averaged 6.60 runs in their last five games, are well-positioned to exploit his current form and take advantage of a shaky Seattle bullpen.
The Mariners’ offense, currently at the bottom of the league in both batting average and strikeout percentage, cannot afford to engage in a high-scoring contest. With their average barely hitting four runs per game and the Cardinals boasting a reliable bullpen for late-game scenarios, expect St. Louis to take an early lead and maintain control throughout the matchup.
