As we near the start of Super Bowl 57 between the Eagles (-1.5) and the Chiefs, this means legal sportsbooks have placed more prop bets. What makes the Super Bowl even more tempting for bettors is the plethora of novel game props that aren’t as commonly bet on during the regular season.
Wondering what our picks are for the outcome of the first and last play of the game or which coach throws a challenge flag first? You’ve come to the right place because we’ve broken down 10 special game props that could spice up your Super Bowl Sunday.
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Super Bowl 57 Prop Bets: Best Novelty Game Props
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
First Touchdown Scorer Jersey Number: UNDER 11.5 (-130)
To start, we’re betting on the shirt number of the game’s first touchdown scorer being less than 12 at odds of -130. If the first touchdown of the game is an offensive result, we estimate our odds of the UNDER hitting 11.5. If it’s the Eagles who get to Paydirt first, talent position studs Jalen Hurts (No. 1), DeVonta Smith (No. 6) and AJ Brown (No. 11) give us the best shot at cashing in our ticket. We think Brown could end up being the game’s first touchdown scorer as he appears to be in line for an effective play against a Chiefs pass defense, which is ranked at the second-highest rate in press coverage this season. according to next-gen stats (43.9 percent). Brown has thrived against press coverage throughout his time in the NFL, and this season he “averaging a career-high 4.5 yards per route against press coverage this season, most in an NGS-era season (min. 100 routes).”
When it’s not Brown and the Eagles who score the first touchdown of the game, Kansas City has four heavily utilized ability-position players whose jersey numbers are less than 12 (Jerick McKinnon, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Isiah Pacheco, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling) . A first touchdown from Travis Kelce or Patrick Mahomes would be a blast, but we’ll take our chances with one of the Chiefs’ other offensive weapons to get the first touchdown of the game.
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1. Offensive move of the game: Pass (+115)
A bet that the first move of the game will be a pass attempt can be a fun way to work up a sweat on another unique prop. When Kansas City starts possession, they go into the big game with the second-highest early-down pass rate this season (61.1 percent). Here’s hoping offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy continues to call in early passes and give Mahomes a chance to pull off a confidence-inspiring pass completion to start the game.
The Eagles are known for their dominant groundplay (50.04 percent run rate), but perhaps surprisingly, they’ve only clipped 48.1 percent on early downs (ranked 14th in the NFL). Like Mahomes, we got to see Hurts try to pass on the first game of the game to shake some potential nerves and boost his confidence.
Net gain in yards on opening drive: UNDER 38.5 (-110)
We’ll also attempt the first drive of the game to net less than 39 yards at -110. We expect both defenses to be ready from the start and believe they will be able to force a punt to end the first drive of the game. Slowing down a Kansas City offense that leads the league in EPA/play (.173) and yards per drive (39.3 yards) is a real challenge, but if any defense can limit the Chiefs’ effectiveness, it’s the Eagles .
The Philadelphia defense has the lowest drop-back EPA in the league (-.110) as their cover unit should hold its own against a battered Kansas City WR Corps. Additionally, the Eagles’ defense has kept opponents averaging just 28.5 yards per drive (seventh in the NFL), which plays into UNDER’s bettors’ hands.
Kansas City can also force a quick change of possession if the Eagles start with possession. The Chiefs defense is one of the most underrated units in the league, posting the fourth-lowest win rate since Week 9 (41 percent). They’ve also held opponents at an average of 30.2 yards per drive (12th), so we like our chances of cashing in an early ticket.
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1. Touchdown Type: Rushing (+160)
In this multi-way market, we think the +160 on the first touchdown of the game is a rushing result. Needless to say, the Eagles recorded a rushing TD, as they lead the NFL with 39 rushing scores while also being the most efficient rushing offense (.102 rush EPA). Philadelphia’s effectiveness with the zone read puts the defense on its heels, as both Hurts and Miles Sanders are as dangerous as comes within the 10. If the Eagles get the first TD of the game, chances are it’s a rushing variant.
Conversely, Philadelphia’s defensive weakness was against the run. It allows for the 10th highest Rush EPA (-0.043) and pass rate (42.9 percent). As a result, Kansas City could very well floor the first TD of the game. Mahomes threw 41 TD passes in the league during the regular season, but the Chiefs still had the eighth most rushing TDs (18).
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Team taking on the first coach challenge: Chiefs (-120)
We agree with the Chiefs as the betting favorite to complete the first coach’s challenge at -120 as Reid isn’t one to keep his challenge flag in his pocket for long. During his coaching career, “Big Red” has flown the red challenge flag 137 times. Nick Sirianni doesn’t have nearly the same track record throwing the red flag over his first two seasons (10 challenges total), and while betting on this market is a bit of a toss-up, your bet on Reid tossing his challenge flag first is the way we lean.
Will the first trainer’s challenge succeed?: No (+110)
Of the 137 games Reid has challenged, he only has a 49.8 percent win rate, so at +110 odds (implicit probability 47.62 percent) we’re betting on the first coach’s challenge (probably Reid’s) losing. Sorry Andy, but betting against your challenging skills is a must, especially when we’re getting +110 odds on something you win less than 50 percent of the time. Sirianni could thwart our plans to cash our two coaches’ challenge bets as he boasts a 60 per cent success rate. However, the sample size is still a bit too small, so we’re still confident that the game’s first trainer challenge will be unsuccessful.
Any non-QB with 1-plus TD pass: Yes (+1800)
How can we not take a fly on a non-QB to throw for a TD pass? Sure, the Eagles don’t have Doug Pederson on the sidelines this season, but after pulling out the Philly Special in Super Bowl 52, you never know what trick Sirianni and company have up their sleeves. For the Chiefs, Reid and Bieniemy are always a danger to add some creases to their game script, and trick play that results in a passing TD from a non-QB isn’t as crazy as it sounds. Sign us up for another memorable Super Bowl trick game TD at +1800.
Any player who has yardage reception greater than 55: Yes (+250)
Mahomes and Hurts each finished the regular season averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and consistently demonstrated an ability to over-stress the defense. Given their willingness to throw in shots, coupled with some big game threats from the outside, we’ll take our chances of at least one player catching a 55-yard reception at +250.
Hurts has improved this season with their deep ball (105.7 passer rating on passes over 20 yards) and with the Chiefs playing at the second-highest rate as a pressman when Brown, Smith or Quez Watkins win from the line of scrimmage can , could be a big chunk in the cards for the Eagles attack.
Mahomes’ big arm can also result in a chunk through the air, as Valdes-Scantling (14.6 aDOT) and Justin Watson (19.5 aDOT) are the likeliest beneficiaries of a long finish. Of course, it also helps that the weather won’t be a factor here, as the lack of wind gives us an even better chance of seeing 55+ yard reception.
Player with the longest rush in the game: Isiah Pacheco (+300)
Pacheco has the second-lowest odds to post the longest rush of the game, and we like that the rookie RB is capping the game’s most explosive run at +300. Pacheco saw more playing time in the AFC championship game (57 percent snap share), and he’s likely to receive a similar workload in the Super Bowl. Pacheco has been finding his groove lately, rushing for 30+ yards in two of his last three games. He also faces an exploitable Eagles defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry (24th), so we’re counting on the rising rookie to stay hot.
Last Play of Game as QB-Knee? No (+155)
Instead of putting -200 on the last play of the game to be a kneel, here we take the +155 on the “no”. With the game’s span under a field goal, a predicted close finish could see the last-ball team trying to keep their championship hopes afloat. We’re hoping this results in the final play of the game being an Hail Maria, or seemingly endless side play.
For those interested in a historical snapshot of the final plays of the game, Super Bowl 11 between the Raiders and Vikings was the first game to end in a QB knee, and only 20 of the 56 Super Bowls ended in a QB- Knee. So let’s hope the trend catches on this year.