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Saturday’s Best Bets: Add This College Football Week 4 Parlay

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Saturday's Best Bets: Add This College Football Week 4 Parlay

Quarterback Adrian Martinez # 2 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Brian Bahr / Getty Images / AFP

Top Sportsbooks has released their odds for Saturday’s Week 4 College Football action. Nebraska vs. Michigan State is a game that I find particularly interesting. You should play both Spread and Total in this game, for reasons I’ll explain. Let’s maximise our profit by playing a two-legged combination.

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, September 25, 2021 – 7:00 p.m. EDT in the Spartan Stadium

The Oklahoma Game and Perception

The public perception of the Cornhuskers should rightly be high after nearly flipping third-placed Oklahoma in its own stadium. There are doubts as Nebraska has a reputation for making numerous mistakes to get itself in trouble. Doubters may recall this reputation from the Cornhuskers’ loss to Illinois in their first season.

But there are two things to keep in mind: Nebraska has played solid football since that season opener, went 3-0 ATS while covering the huge spread against Fordham, easily covering against a normally good Buffalo squad, and then nearly taking Oklahoma into overtime as a 22.5-point underdog.

I’ve seen the claim that Nebraska tends to live up to its reputation for being a messy soccer team after big games. Although there is some truth to this assertion, it is not applicable to Cornhusker wins such as the 18-point loss at Illinois last year. This was after a big win against Penn State. The Cornhuskers nearly upset double-digit favorite Iowa on the road that year and won Purdue by ten the week after. Similar to 2018, Nebraska defeated Illinois one week after defeating Ohio State at their own stadium. The Buckeyes won with less that one touchdown.

You can still pick NCAAF’s top teams, but this team is hungry and wants more wins.

Adrian Martinez

Regardless of what his doubters say, this is the year Martinez only threw one interception in four games. This interception was a remarkable one-handed grab by a Sooner defense. Martinez couldn’t resist throwing the ball, as the situation was fourth. The pass was good, but the coverage was poor and Sooner’s back made a highlight-reel grab.

Cornhusker critics point to Michigan State’s performance against Hurricane quarterback D’Eriq King. King and Martinez, however, are two different players. King is mobile, but there are many other mobile quarterbacks available and they don’t look identical. King’s large amounts rushing have often been due to poor defenses, or the outcome of one big game.

Quarterback Adrian Martinez #2 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Brian Bahr / Getty Images / AFP

As a runner, Martinez is on a different level than Kingas demonstrated, for example, in his 102 rushing yards last year against a then-strained northwestern defense. Therefore, the Kings Rushing Yards limit does not indicate Michigan State’s capability to cap Martinez.

Michigan State will rely on a linebacking team they specifically selected this off-season in order to limit Martinez. They may also add them via transfers. Quavariscrouch, the current linebacker who has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks in the past, is an important transfer. Crouch’s volunteer status meant that Crouch’s opponent, Kellen Mond, was only a yard away of setting a record for rushing yards against Tennessee.

Passing game

Looking at our sports betting, I think you have to expect Martinez to do well against Crouch and the rest of the Spartan defense. Martinez will be able to defeat a Spartan secondary school with problems that was unable or unwilling to reduce the number of hurricane-wide receiving receivers.

Last week, the Spartan secondary was able to face real athletes. Michigan State was known for using a very soft pad. However, King managed to collect big air games that saw him go 388 yards. Cornhusker wide receivers, former four-star prospects Zavier Bets and Omar Manning, achieved a high catch to target ratio against Oklahoma as they made unique moves to keep Nebraska in play.

It’s this two-dimensionality – Martinez’s mobility and his passing game – and that big play ability both on the ground and in the air that makes me like Nebraska to cover your best bets.

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Michigan State can’t keep up

One aspect in which the Spartan offensive is limited is the passing game in the field. Payton Thorne doesn’t have enough time to make connections in big games. His lack of passport protection – Michigan State ranks 87th on the quarterback sack rate – sends him on the run, which limits the field for him and gives him no opportunities to fight for big wins like Martinez does.

A ton of returning front-seven players for Nebraska is helping the team reliably build quarterback pressure, even if the team in Sacks is only 52nd per game, which is a statistic that is devalued by opponents like Buffalo who are passing quickly. Thorne’s approach to Youngstown State teams has been more successful than his more conservative approach which relies on his team to get to work.

The reason I think the Spartans will still score enough for the “upper” is the great ability of their athletes to play in space, like speedster Jalen Nailor, who has the pace that the more physically sculpted of Nebraska’s best cornerbacks can hardly control. Additionally, the Cornhusker defense has been very poor at limiting opposing runningbacks. This is something Michigan State can benefit from with Kenneth Walker’s 493 yards and 8.6 YPC. Walker’s success will open Thorne’s game action and bootleg.

The Cornhuskers should be compared to the “Over” for the reasons mentioned above. Our parlay calculator is reliable and can be used for all your parlay wagering requirements.

NCAAF selection: Cornhuskers -5 at (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline review)

NCAAF selection: Over 52 at (-110) at BetOnline

NCAAF parlay(+264)

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* The selection reflects the line at the moment the author made the game, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Our live odds are available to help you understand how the lines may change.

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