DALLAS — Is Roki Sasaki a lock to the Dodgers? The latest on the Japanese phenom’s free agency suggests that while the Los Angeles franchise is a strong contender, nothing is guaranteed.
The highly sought-after international free agent was officially posted this week, initiating a 45-day window for MLB teams to present their offers to the 23-year-old pitcher. Sasaki, known for his exceptional fastball and impressive skills, has captured the attention of numerous organizations.
Joel Wolfe, Sasaki’s agent, shared insights from the Hilton Anatole during MLB’s winter meetings, stating the negotiation process will be “open-ended.” He plans to meet with Sasaki soon to outline a schedule for discussions with various teams, which will start next week. Initial meetings will occur in a centralized location, followed by potential visits to select teams.
The 2024 international signing period concludes on December 15, with Sasaki expected to sign during the 2025 period starting January 15. Each team will then have a bonus pool of $5-8 million to work with as they reset their budgets.
“Teams have already begun sending presentations in various formats,” Wolfe mentioned, having reviewed three or four so far. “We didn’t impose a strict deadline for submissions because we want teams to take the time to prepare quality proposals.”
For context, Sasaki’s situation differs from that of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year, $325 million contract last year, the largest ever for a pitcher. Sasaki, still under 25, is bound by international amateur free-agent restrictions, meaning he can only sign a minor-league deal from a team’s international bonus pool. Despite this, he is regarded as one of the top pitchers available, making him an attractive option for many teams. Wolfe estimates that “at least half the league” has scouted Sasaki over the past year.
Wolfe provided an overview of how the process will unfold, what is known about Sasaki, and what to expect in the coming weeks.
“It’s a complex question,” Wolfe admitted.
“Some aspects are rooted in Japanese culture, while others are simply about Roki Sasaki,” he continued. “In baseball, there are no guarantees, and for Roki, life reflects that sentiment.”
Wolfe highlighted the personal tragedies Sasaki has faced, including the loss of his father and grandparents in the 2011 tsunami, which have profoundly influenced his outlook on life. He approaches opportunities with a sense of gratitude.
“It is not a foregone conclusion that he will secure a Yamamoto-level contract in two years,” Wolfe cautioned. “Baseball is unpredictable. Pitchers are prone to injuries like Tommy John surgery, and Sasaki has faced shoulder and oblique issues in the past. The future is uncertain.”
Sasaki’s participation in the World Baseball Classic has intensified his ambition to play in the majors.
“Since high school, it has been his dream to join the major leagues,” Wolfe noted. “He has admired players like Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, and Daisuke Matsuzaka. His experience at the WBC solidified his desire to pursue this dream as soon as possible.”
Wolfe emphasized that Sasaki is still unfamiliar with individual teams and cities. He has been encouraged to maintain an open mind throughout the process. Wolfe dismissed speculation about a handshake deal with the Dodgers, despite rumors linking Sasaki to the team due to his connections with WBC teammates Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani.
“Given the minor differences in bonus pool amounts, I advised him not to base his decision solely on that factor,” Wolfe explained. “The trajectory of his career will ultimately determine his earnings, so making a short-term decision based on pool size may not be wise.”
What factors are most significant for Sasaki?
Wolfe is still gauging Sasaki’s priorities.
Having known Sasaki for over two years, Wolfe admits it’s been challenging to pinpoint what influences his team selection. The primary focus has been on the posting process itself.
With that hurdle cleared, Sasaki’s NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, announced the posting process in November, surprising many given the lower posting fee they will receive compared to waiting until he turns 25. Wolfe was unaware of the official timeline until recently.
Wolfe stated that Sasaki has requested a wide range of information about different teams and regions to help inform his decision.
“He has been following team performances closely, both this year and in prior seasons,” Wolfe shared. “He watches a lot of Major League Baseball and is attentive to the achievements of his WBC teammates. Sasaki has also engaged with foreign players from Chiba Lotte, asking about weather, comfort, and pitching development.”
As teams pursued players like Kodai Senga and Yamamoto, many asked Wolfe whether existing Japanese players on their roster would be a benefit or a hindrance for Sasaki.
“It varies for each player,” Wolfe noted. “The influence of current players matters. How they connect with Sasaki will play a role in his comfort level.”
Wolfe believes that while having an experienced player could be beneficial, Sasaki’s driven nature means he may not necessarily need that support to thrive.
Do West Coast teams hold an edge?
When asked about the Padres’ potential appeal, especially given Sasaki’s admiration for Darvish, Wolfe indicated that San Diego could be a serious contender.
He also mentioned that he hasn’t discussed Sasaki’s relationship with Ohtani.
Both the Dodgers and Padres are making their interest clear
Dodgers president Andrew Friedman labeled Sasaki a “major priority” on Tuesday. While the Dodgers have yet to submit their presentations to Sasaki’s agency, they are preparing to do so shortly.
“We will do everything possible, knowing many teams will do the same,” Friedman stated. “What that means in the end is uncertain, but I feel good about our efforts.”
Questions about the advantages of having a Japanese superstar on the roster arose last year after the Dodgers signed Ohtani, and it seems to have benefited their pitch to Yamamoto.
Now, the Dodgers hope that having Ohtani and Yamamoto will bolster their chances with Sasaki.
“The success of the Samurai Japan team at the World Baseball Classic has shifted perspectives,” Friedman noted. “However, it’s ultimately Sasaki’s individual choice. For some, this is a positive factor, while for others, it may not be. Our goal is to present the city, market, opportunity, and growth we offer.”
The Dodgers will also highlight their player development success, particularly in enhancing pitchers’ skills. Sasaki’s impressive fastball and above-average splitter suggest a bright future ahead.
“He has expressed his ambition to become the best pitcher globally,” Friedman remarked, “and we believe he possesses that potential.”
With many teams eager to pursue him, the modest cost is an attractive proposition.
The Padres also present compelling advantages. With Darvish’s strong reputation among players, Sasaki could help elevate a California team poised for greater success.
“If there’s an open market competition, I believe we are well-positioned for several reasons,” Padres manager Mike Shildt stated. “San Diego is a beautiful city with a full ballpark every night. We have a competitive team and a chance for him to create a legacy by winning the first World Series. Our GM, A.J. Preller, has strong ties to Japan and has successfully navigated the market before.”
Shildt is confident that Darvish will play a role in the recruitment process, although the extent is yet to be determined. Similarly, Friedman is unsure how involved Ohtani and Yamamoto will be in the Dodgers’ pitch.
“I’m sure they will talk, and I expect their insights will be valuable,” Friedman said. “However, it’s unclear how active they will be.”
Can smaller or mid-market teams compete?
What about the media landscape in Japan?
“The media in Japan has been quite critical of him, which has affected his mental state,” Wolfe commented. “In my opinion, this scrutiny has been somewhat unfair.”
Wolfe elaborated on the challenges Sasaki faces: “He has faced negativity because of his desire to play in MLB at such a young age, which is often viewed as disrespectful in Japan. This has led to false rumors about him and his family, impacting his mental well-being.”
Does this influence his choice of city, such as New York?
“He hasn’t expressed strong feelings about any particular city, positive or negative,” Wolfe said. “We haven’t discussed specific locations in detail yet, but I believe he can handle the pressures of any market.”
When can Sasaki be expected to make a decision?
While the signing won’t occur until at least January 15, Sasaki may decide before then.
“The sooner he signs, the quicker he can initiate the visa process, ensuring he arrives on time for spring training,” Wolfe explained. “Making a timely decision is beneficial for everyone involved.”
