Baltimore Orioles (4-6) and Arizona Diamondbacks (5-5) continue their interleague series today at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. The Orioles are striving to find consistency early in the 2025 MLB season, while the Diamondbacks are trying to bounce back at home after a mixed start. The game begins at 9:40 PM ET, with the Diamondbacks listed as slight favorites and an over/under of 9 runs.
Orioles: In Need of a Spark
The Orioles have had a difficult start to their season, sitting last in the highly competitive AL East. Their offense has shown flashes of dominance, scoring 47 runs across ten games, yet much of this comes from a few explosive outings. Despite slashing .263/.324/.419 as a team with 11 home runs, their inconsistency has prevented them from sustaining success. Key performer Cedric Mullins has driven the team with a .313 batting average, three home runs, and 11 RBIs.
However, pitching remains a major concern. The team’s 4.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP reflect struggles across the rotation. Veteran Charlie Morton (0-2, 9.72 ERA) takes the mound, attempting to rebound from two rough outings. Morton has historically been steady against Arizona, though his recent numbers are troubling; in four starts against the Diamondbacks over the past three seasons, he’s allowed 15 earned runs in 24 innings.
Diamondbacks: Bounce Back at Home
Arizona enters this game with a .500 record, matching their early season averages. The team has scored 58 runs in 10 games and boasts a strong .350 on-base percentage and .450 slugging percentage. However, they are without one of their leading hitters, Ketel Marte, due to a hamstring injury.
Merrill Kelly will get the ball for the Diamondbacks. The 36-year-old has also struggled, posting a 10.00 ERA in two starts. While Kelly excelled in his first outing against the Cubs, he faltered against the Yankees, surrendering nine earned runs in 3.2 innings. With limited prior experience against Baltimore hitters, Kelly will look to stabilize his performance.
Key Factors for the Game
- Pitching Stability: Both Kelly and Morton have been erratic in 2025, and their performances will likely dictate how this game unfolds.
- Offensive Matchups: Arizona hitters have historically fared better against Morton, with Geraldo Perdomo notably batting 5-for-9 with two doubles in this matchup. Meanwhile, most Orioles players lack familiarity with Kelly.
- Bullpen Impact: Both teams possess reliable bullpens capable of shutting down games. Baltimore’s relievers hold a 3.47 ERA, while Arizona’s bullpen boasts a 3.79 ERA.
Prediction
Given the inconsistent performances of the starting pitchers, expect scoring opportunities early in the game. Arizona’s lineup has been more consistent overall, and home-field advantage could play a pivotal role. Merrill Kelly, despite his recent struggles, is slightly more dependable than Charlie Morton at this stage. The Diamondbacks are slight favorites, but the high total suggests confidence in offensive production. Look for a competitive game perhaps with a lean towards the over 9 runs. This game presents intriguing betting opportunities, but a close contest remains the expectation.
