NFL picks, predictions against the spread Week 7: Chiefs top 49ers; Jaguars jam Giants; Packers, Ravens rebound

Kyler Murray

Week 6 of the wild and wacky 2022 NFL season did not fall on a Friday the 13th weekend and was a few weeks before Halloween. That hasn’t stopped the list of games from getting some scary results.

The 49ers, Packers and Buccaneers all ran into big upsets. The Giants, Jets and Vikings continue their march to surprise seasons. The score is down and the Eagles at home are the most dependable in an unpredictable year.

What does this mean to improve our picks and predictions versus the week 7 spread? Don’t assume anything and focus on the right numbers.

Here’s the latest fearless prediction from 14 other professional pigskin predictions:

(Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)

POWER RANKINGS: Surprising Giants, Vikings, Jets keep rising

NFL Votes Against Week 7 Spread

  • Midweek Game: Saints at Cardinals (-1.5, 45 o/u)

Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video

The Saints look set to stick with Andy Dalton as the starting QB. Dalton does not have a good track record in prime time. New Orleans will look to win with another heavy dose of running play, but its defense is stunted overall. The Cardinals will be down to Marquise Brown, but DeAndre Hopkins is there to help Kyler Murray at home from a critical rebound point. The Arizona defense will outperform and get some key takeaways from anyone who’s in the QB.

Choose: Cardinals win 27-20 and cover the spread.

  • Game of the week: Chiefs (-3, 48 o/u) at 49ers

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Chiefs narrowly escaped the Raiders and then failed to finish off the Bills, both at home. The 49ers have had one road blowout win and one road blowout loss. San Francisco’s defensive injuries are important in opening the running and passing games for Kansas City. Patriots Mahomes again outplays Jimmy Garoppolo like he did in Super Bowl 54.

Choose: Chiefs win 27-23 and cover the spread.

  • AFC Game of the Week: Steelers at Dolphins (-7, 44 o/u)

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The Steelers will likely have to return to Mitchell Trubisky in QB as rookie Kenny Pickett has a concussion. The dolphins will go with either Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater. They’ll use Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle’s great matchups against an injury-plagued Pittsburgh pass defense to move the ball well. The Steelers can counter with more pop with Najee Harris and the game in progress, and create good opportunities with their talented wide receivers against a thin runner-up.

Choose: Dolphins win 27-24 but fail to cover spread.

Bailey Zappe

  • Suspension of the week: Patriots (-9, 39.5 o/u) over Bears

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

There’s no point messing around here anymore. Bill Belichick’s improving defense has a lot of support from rookie Bailey Zappe, who stabilizes a run-heavy offense at quarterback. That joins the red-hot Rhamondre Stevenson as a sophomore in attack. Belichick will easily untie a second-year QB, Justin Fields, stuck on a predictable offense that lacks versatility and multiples. Stevenson will destroy another bad run defense.

Choose: Patriots win 33-14 and cover the spread.

  • Excitement of the week: Jets over Broncos (-3, 42 o/u)

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

This is another type of game in favor of the Jets. They can disrupt a struggling Russell Wilson with a young defense gaining in confidence, and their run-heavy offense will give the Broncos the sneaky troubles. Zach Wilson will keep his volume down, but there will be a matchup or two that he can exploit with his wide receivers and tight ends. Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur also have the combined coaching advantage over Nathaniel Hackett and Ejiro Evero.

Choose: Jets win 20-17.

Zach Wilson

  • Falcons near Bengal (-6, 47 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Falcons are at their best when they can leap forward and get into their relentless run-based offense with a committee of backs and Marcus Mariota, who is also a part of it. The Bengals will push them out of that comfort zone, with Joe Burrow taking advantage of their cornerback injuries and minus pass rush with Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and a healthier Tee Higgins.

Choose: Bengals win 34-20 and cover the spread.

  • Lions at Cowboys (-7, 48 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Cowboys are hoping to get Dak Prescott back, but he seems a little rusty, and the Lions offense should be back at almost full power and a pass to erase memories of the New England Pre-Bye Shutout. Dallas’ offense still isn’t performing at its usual explosive level, and Detroit will keep it tight with a balanced attack to take the pressure off Jared Goff.

Choose: Cowboys win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.

Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Boyd

  • Colts at Titans (-3, 42.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Colts kept their offensive line played at a high level last week to keep Matt Ryan clean to throw the field and also bring Deon Jackson to a Jonathan Taylor-like play without Taylor. The Titans will also do well with Derrick Henry, but Taylor’s likely return and Matt Ryan, who remains sharper than Ryan Tannehill with better weapons, makes all the difference.

Choose: Colts win 24-23.

  • Packer (-5.5, 41.5 o/u) at Commanders

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Packers lost to New York teams in London and Lambeau. With a schedule even more brutal, including the week 8 bills, they will be desperate to do what is needed here on the road. Aaron Rogers and Green Bay’s struggling offense gets a needed break against a terrible pass defense that’s also vulnerable on the run. You will know that Taylor Heinicke is limited in leading a comeback.

Choose: Packers win 30-17 and cover the spread

Allen Lazard-Aaron Rodgers-072722-GETTY-FTR

  • Buccaneers (-10.5, 40.5 o/u) at Panthers

Sunday.1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Buccaneers have by no means dominated as their offense worked out new kinks around Tom Brady. But two of their three victories have dealt with division opponents. Assuming Brady doesn’t hit a Friday night wedding, he should play more like the GOAT on Sunday, with a big Leonard Fournette assist against a defense that’s weaker than passing against the run. Carolina’s QB situation is a mess in terms and the Bucs have the defense to at least contain Christian McCaffrey.

Tip: Buccaneers win 27-13 and cover the spread.

NFL MOCK DRAFT: Panthers, Lions, Texans take on QBs; Commanders, Eagles go top 10 on defense

  • Giants at Jaguars (-3, 42.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Giants appear due for a disappointment after sending the Packers and Ravens back-to-back to put a stamp on their 5-1 record. But they do it by winning late attrition battles with limited but timely attacks. The Jaguars will struggle more against the run against Saquon Barkley but may pose problems for Daniel Jones. On the other hand, Trevor Lawrence will lean on his versatile running backs for a home win.

Choose: Jaguars win 21-20 but fail to cover the span.

  • Browns at Ravens (-7, 46 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Browns’ run defense is in shambles and Myles Garrett suffers again. Their linebacker and secondary play were a huge disappointment. That should work well for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ traditional running game. The Browns also don’t have any real answers for Mark Andrews or downfield shot plays-off-play action. Jacoby Brissett will get mixed up with Nick Chubb again.

Choose: Ravens win 30-20 and cover the spread.

  • Texans at Raiders (-7, 46 o/u)

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Raiders will continue to clean up offensively after the bye. They were revved up again in Week 5 in the red zone in Kansas City. Between Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, all of whom are expected to be healthy at the same time, it will be a challenge for the outstanding zone pass of the Texan defense under Lovie Smith. While Dameon Pierce’s run can keep the Texans early in the game, Davis Mills’ road problems continue to cost them.

Choose: Raiders win 33-21 and cover the spread.

  • Seahawks at Chargers (-7.5, 52.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Seahawks’ offense can cause problems for the Chargers as rookie Kenneth Walker runs back and has quick downfield wideouts in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett working their way off game action. Geno Smith will again be efficient when dueling Justin Herbert, but eventually Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams and the Chargers’ other mismatch creating offensive weapons will be too much.

Choose: Chargers win 34-27 but fail to cover the spread.

Recording of week 6 direct: 6-7

Week 6 record vs spread: 6-7

Season balance direct: 53-38

Season balance against the spread: 44-48

Dave Gallo

Dave Gallo is a pioneering sports analytics expert, renowned for his revolutionary work in AI-driven sports simulations, projections, and advanced statistical analysis. With a profound passion for sports and technology, he crafts cutting-edge computer models that accurately predict outcomes. Dave's game-changing insights have reshaped strategy, player evaluation, and decision-making across various sports. His dynamic presentations make complex analytics accessible and inspiring, ensuring his legacy as a visionary in sports analytics. Check out Dave's Pick Record.

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