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NFL picks, predictions against the spread Week 17: Bengals bump Bills from top; Packers pound Vikings; Jaguars, 49ers stay hot

Christian McCaffrey
nfl picks, predictions against the spread week 17: bengals bump

Week 16 in the NFL was a classic example of just how wild and crazy the 2022 season was, with unexpected mishaps and major upsets. These results seem to keep happening just to make the playoff picture more interesting.

The aim of the league has been to make games more competitive going into the season and that will continue to be the case here with several teams playing for a lot in the last two weeks. Close division games also make for closer, harder-to-predict matchups.

What is the week 17 schedule and how well can we navigate it to find the right picks and predictions against the spread? Here’s the latest fearless full sale prediction.

(Betting odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)

NFL POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys, Packers rise in playoff picture; Steelers jump Patriots, Jets for Week 17

NFL votes against Week 17 spread

  • Game of the Week: Cowboys (-9.5, 42.5 o/u) at Titans

Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video

The Cowboys got their mojo back when Dak Prescott rebounded from an early pick six to light the Eagles with a successful fourth quarter. The Titans are fading harder and harder offensively, with the inexperienced Malik Willis attempting to operate a limited passing game. Dallas should continue Derrick Henry early and write him out of the game with much more success for Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and the rest of the passing game.

Choose: Cowboys win 27-13 and cover the spread.

  • Game of the week: Bills (-1, 49.5) at Bengals

Monday 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Bills’ offense lately relies on the running game with his backs and Josh Allen. The Bengals have shown more of a full offensive with more weapons in passing and fast attacks. Allen and Joe Burrow have also been plagued by recent key interceptions. Burrow tends to have more control at home and that makes the difference as Cincinnati improves their chances of winning the top seed.

Choose: Bengal win 27-24

  • Excitement of the week: Browns (+2.5, 42.5 o/u) Commanders

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Browns are a roller coaster team and Deshaun Watson has taken their recent results wilder than usual, win or lose. The Commanders have an odd QB situation for a playoff team that dates back to Carson Wentz. Nick Chubb and Cleveland receivers make the difference here, as the QB change throws off Washington’s offense enough in an ugly defensive play.

Choose: Browns win 20-17.

  • Lock of the Week: 49ers (-5, 44.5) over Raiders

Saturday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox

The 49ers don’t get enough respect here as they look to extend their winning streak to a good nine games. They haven’t lost since losing to the Chiefs in Week 7. This is a brutal home game for Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs after being ripped in Pittsburgh. Expect a huge contingent of 49ers fans in Vegas, where nothing can stop Brock Purdy’s home team. Kyle Shanahan vs. Josh McDaniels is not a competition.

Choose: 49ers win 38-14 and cover the spread.

  • Cardinals at Falcons (-4, 41 o/u)

Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Cardinals are unsure if Colt McCoy can return from his concussion, but they should continue to lean on James Conner and the game in progress. The Falcons will continue to run strong to bolster rookie QB Desmond Ridder. This becomes a tossup for the first two NFC teams in alphabetical order. A coin toss says the Falcons win better when they protect the ball better at home.

Choose: Falcons win 23-20 but fail to cover the span.

  • Bears at Lions (-5.5, 52 o/u)

Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Lions got a defensive wake-up call by being pounded to the ground by the Panthers. That should give the Bears confidence on the road, knowing Justin Fields can bounce back in a more favorable matchup while leaning on David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. But the Lions can counter with more offensive explosiveness with Jared Goff in a complete comfort zone at home.

Choose: Lions win 31-27 but can’t cover the span.

Patrick Mahomes

  • Broncos at Chiefs (-13.5, 45 o/u)

Saturday.1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Broncos should be ignited by the fact that they are no longer coached by Nathaniel Hackett. Russell Wilson and offense should clean things up and Denver’s running game and defense can keep it in play for a while. Kansas City will settle for Grind mode to get just one win before ending with the Raiders on the road.

Pick: Chiefs win 30-17 but fail to cover the span.

  • Dolphins (-1, 43.5 o/u) at Patriots

Saturday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Dolphins have lost four games in a row. The Patriots are on a two-game sled. Miami still holds on to an AFC wildcard spot, while New England may have to settle for more spoiler mode. Tua Tagovailoa is struggling and Bill Belichick will plan his pass defense to force him to make more crucial mistakes. The Patriots will build on the strong second half of the season against the Bengals in order to even out the series of the season.

Choose: Patriots win 27-24.

Saturday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Colts are operating in a short week while the Giants suffer a hard-fought loss in Minnesota. New York’s first season with Daniel Jones, playing for Brian Daboll, will be a success with a playoff berth, and that reward comes here ahead of the finish against Philadelphia. Jones and Saquon Barkley will grind into enough offense to help defense.

Choose: Giants win 20-17.

AJ Brown

  • Saints at Eagles (-7, 44 o/u)

Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Saints refuse to fade in the NFC playoff race, but they may not have a choice this week. Jalen Hurts is committed to returning from his right shoulder injury, but the Eagles would be wise to trust Gardner to deliver Minshew in a favorable home game. Philadelphia gets a break in the face of lesser passing play as their pass defense falters and their own wide receivers are key to a rebound win.

Pick: Eagles win 30-20 and cover the spread.

  • Panther in privateers (-3, 39 o/u)

Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Panthers can win the NFC South with back-to-back road wins in Tampa Bay and New Orleans. The Buccaneers will finally look to the division title by winning only at home this week. Carolina is conflicted as she sees two mighty mileages wedge a hapless rushing attack. Tom Brady is working harder to get his struggling team off their offensive slump and he won’t let the Panthers steal the South.

Choose: Buccaneers win 20-16.

  • Jaguars (-4, 43.5 o/u) at Texans

Saturday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Jaguars can neither win nor lose the AFC South title in Houston as Week 18 at home against the Titans still decides the division. But Jacksonville doesn’t want to cool down and lose momentum either. A fourth straight win is on the cards as offense around Trevor Lawrence clicks well, while a Texan offensive mess can’t match those results.

Choose: Jaguars win 27-20 and cover the spread.

Mike White and Garrett Wilson

  • Jets (-2.5, 43.5 o/u) at Seahawks

Saturday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox

The Jets are getting Mike White as quarterback and are probably done with Zach Wilson for good. New York can move the ball well with the running game and the inside passing game on the street, while the Seahawks’ offense around ex-Jet Geno Smith is now more limited.

Choose: Jets win 23-20 and cover the spread.

  • Vikings at Packers (-3, 47 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

The Vikings have lived on the edge, but their “luck” of winning 11 one-ball games without a loss this season is a vestige of great offensive design and timely defense. Green Bay is feeling it with Aaron Rodgers and this is a recovery game for his passing and running games at Lambeau. The Packers will be relentless in tearing apart their rivals, setting up a revenge playoff clinch scenario in Week 18 against the Lions.

Choose: Packers win 30-17 and cover the spread.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

The Rams used their knowledge of the Broncos’ defensive system to their full advantage with Sean McVay. You’ll have a similar feel to McVay protégé Brandon Staley and her Crosstown rivals. However, the Chargers have more firepower and can attack the Rams’ defenses in all the right places with Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler.

Choose: Chargers win 27-24.

  • Steelers at Ravens (-3.5, 36 o/u)

Monday 8:20 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Ravens are in full victory mode with Tyler Huntley, their run-heavy offense and their stingy defense. That puts them in a good position against the Steelers after they won 19-14 in Pittsburgh in Week 14. The Steelers will be tight with their own defense and Kenny Pickett will be a game for a tough duel.

Choose: Ravens win 20-17 but can’t cover the span.

Week 16 record straight: 12-4
Week 16 record against the spread: 7-8th
Season balance directly: 157-81
Season balance against the spread: 118-116

Written By

Dave Gallo is a pioneering sports analytics expert, renowned for his revolutionary work in AI-driven sports simulations, projections, and advanced statistical analysis. With a profound passion for sports and technology, he crafts cutting-edge computer models that accurately predict outcomes. Dave's game-changing insights have reshaped strategy, player evaluation, and decision-making across various sports. His dynamic presentations make complex analytics accessible and inspiring, ensuring his legacy as a visionary in sports analytics. Check out Dave's Pick Record.

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