NFL homestretch: As the regular season approaches its conclusion, the playoff picture is becoming clearer, with seven teams having already secured their spots. Six additional teams boast an impressive 87% or higher chance of clinching a playoff berth, according to the New York Times’ simulator. This leaves the NFC West as the last division where playoff positioning remains uncertain, creating an exciting “you’re in or you’re out” scenario.
The seeding for the 14 playoff teams, however, is still up for grabs. One NFC team currently holding a strong 12-2 record is poised for a first-round bye, while another faces the prospect of starting their playoff journey on the road as a wild card. The injury to Patrick Mahomes has shifted the dynamics for the Kansas City Chiefs, who are no longer guaranteed the AFC’s top seed and home-field advantage. This development opens the door for the Buffalo Bills, who handed Kansas City their only loss this season.
NFC TOP SEED
Lions (12-2): at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings (combined record 22-20)
Current Super Bowl odds: +475 (bet $10 to win $57.50 total)
Eagles (12-2): at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants (combined record 17-25)
Current Super Bowl odds: +475 (bet $10 to win $57.50 total)
Vikings (12-2): at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions (combined record 30-12)
Current Super Bowl odds: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
A compelling scenario unfolds: if the Vikings drop one of their next two games but manage to defeat the Lions, while the Eagles, benefiting from an easier schedule, win their next two, they would only need to overcome the struggling Giants in Week 18 to secure the top seed. Meanwhile, New York may find motivation in the knowledge that losing could grant them the first overall pick in the 2025 draft.
AFC TOP SEED
Chiefs (13-1): vs. Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos (combined record 28-14)
Current Super Bowl odds: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Bills (11-3): vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots (combined record 10-32)
Current Super Bowl odds: +425 (bet $10 to win $52.50 total)
Steelers (10-4): at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals (combined record 28-14)
Current Super Bowl odds: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Before Mahomes’ injury, the Chiefs appeared to be a lock for the AFC’s top seed. However, with three challenging matchups ahead, they may find themselves in a precarious position, potentially starting backup Carson Wentz. Should they stumble in two of these games, the Bills could seize the head-to-head tiebreaker, allowing for a potential AFC Championship Game in Buffalo instead of Arrowhead Stadium.
LAST TWO AFC WILD CARDS
Broncos (9-5): at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs (combined record 27-15)
Current Super Bowl odds: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Chargers (8-6): vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders (combined record 14-28)
Current Super Bowl odds: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
The Chargers face the Broncos at home on Thursday, having bested Denver in their previous encounter. A win would propel Los Angeles ahead in the playoff race. Jim Harbaugh’s squad has a favorable schedule ahead, facing two teams likely to be drafting in the top three next April.
Should the Broncos falter on Thursday, they might find themselves facing the Chiefs in the regular-season finale. A victory there could lead to another showdown with Kansas City just a week later in the playoffs. While Patrick Mahomes is expected to return for the postseason, the prospect of facing a hobbled Mahomes might seem more appealing than contending with a fully fit Josh Allen and the Bills. The Broncos almost secured a victory at Arrowhead earlier this season, only to be thwarted by a blocked field goal as time expired.
NFC THIRD SEED
Bucs (8-6): at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints (combined record 14-28)
Current Super Bowl odds: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Rams (8-6): at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks (combined record 19-23)
Current Super Bowl odds: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
In the NFC, the Bucs, holding a slim lead over the Falcons, control their destiny for the No. 3 seed. This positioning could help them avoid facing the Lions or Vikings in the wild-card round. Both Tampa Bay and Los Angeles have manageable schedules ahead, with the potential to finish at 11-6. Should they both achieve this, the Bucs would hold the tiebreaker due to a better conference record. The Rams, however, may find their division title on the line in Week 18 against Seattle, a matchup that could have playoff implications for both teams.
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously dedicated a decade to covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. Follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
