When we previewed the Game 3 showdown between the Suns and Nuggets, we noted how dominant Denver had been in seven playoff games, but warned bettors to (a) never doubt Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and (b) be cautiously pessimistic about the Nugs’ postseason road defense regards. When all was said and done, Book and KD dominated en route to a much-needed win and We correctly predicted every facet of our best bets and advice.
Like Phoenix, we’ll try to carry that momentum into Game 4 tonight (8pm ET, TNT). Today we’ll be discussing some key betting trends and revealing our final score predictions, the best bets, and our favorite props for SuperDraft players heading into Sunday night’s Western Conference clash of the Suns-Nuggets.
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Suns vs. Nuggets odds, tips, predictions
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
- spread: Suns -1.5 (-105) | Nuggets +1.5 (-115)
- In total: OVER 227.5 (-105) | BELOW 227.5 (-115)
- money line: Suns -125 | Nuggets +105
Oddsmakers are clearly estimating Denver’s chances of bouncing back after the Bookers and KD Show took over Game 3. Phoenix’s home spread has been cut to -1.5 today from -3.5 on Friday, with a bid line of -125 implying only a 55 percent probability of winning. In the eyes of the bookies, this is basically a toss-up after Denver allowed two guys to combine for 86 points and still only lost by seven.
But Phoenix might have found something. We told you the other day that Suns coach Monty Williams is one of the best coaches when it comes to adjustments, so it came as no surprise when Cam Payne, TJ Warren and Jock Landale saw big increases in usage, serving as a combined +33 in the Night.
It also came as no surprise that Phoenix was able to fight better at depth and get higher shot percentages with a bigger lineup. Denver had maintained its size and strength in its 6-1 postseason start, but in Game 3 we saw the Nugs were looking undersized — most notably the perimeter trio of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown and Jeff Green.
And Denver’s postseason defensive woes are repeating themselves — Mike Malone’s roster is only 9-18 in playoff away games during the Jokic era. Worse, the Nuggets are out in the postseason between mid-September 2020 and today 3-11. Since the 2021 playoffs, they’ve now lost all three road games in Phoenix, they failed in all three contests against the Warriors at Chase Center last year, and they even lost one of two at Target Center in the first round to the Unfortunate Wolves in the postseason .
We still think Denver will win this series – Denver went 34-7 at home and 5-0 in the playoffs so far at Ball Arena this season, and Jokic is just too damn strong for the Suns to put him, Jamal Murray and Michael keep Porter Jr. eliminated in four of seven games.
But we can’t possibly bet against KD and Book at home after seeing them in Game 3. Durant was a late missed free throw away from him and Booker, each dropping 40 burgers, a feat befitting Kings. This series just feels like it’s seven years in the making, and we wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Booker and Durant flipped the valley over again tonight.
Forecast: Suns 117, Nuggets 112. The Suns (-1.5) cover the spread with the game slightly exceeding the total (227.5).
Best SuperDraft Player Prop Bet for Suns vs. Nuggets: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope UNDER 9.5 points
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KCP has been a strong part of Denver’s supporting cast all season, but he struggled a lot in Game 3. Biggest issue: He’s undersized at 6-5, 205 for the three and overwhelmed with two guards against Booker, an underrated defenseman who’s pulling out the postseason brackets. And if Booker takes the point guard position and Phoenix brings Josh Okogie or Torrey Craig to the two, good god. KCP just doesn’t fit into the scoring equation while the big dogs go at each other – he relies on a few catch-and-shoot opportunities and doesn’t get much more than that. We have every faith that Caldwell-Pope will remain in the single digits for the second straight year and fourth this postseason.
Other Suns Nuggets SuperDraft Props We Like: Aaron Gordon UNDER 14.5 points, DeAndre Ayton UNDER 14.5 points