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NBA Player Point-Spread Values for the 2018-19 Season

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nba player point spread values for the 2018 19 season

Have you ever bet on an NBA team only to find out shortly after that their star player was resting? Your heart rate increases. Strong feelings of anger come over your body. And as we all know, anger leads to hate and hatred leads to … suffering.

When you upload the Money-Burning GIF to your Twitter account, you might be wondering, “Hmm, how much did that selfish coaching decision cost me in terms of dissemination?”

This is where I come in. Well, not me personally, but a couple of guys I know. I know my way around basketball pretty well, but will I be able to make an NBA player spread value list? No, at least not a good one.

Instead, I contacted Scott Cooley, an odds consultant, and Mike Young, sports wagering and integrity analyst (and NBA lover) for CG Technology.

Everyone has their own opinion, and you can be sure that there aren’t two sports betting providers with exactly the same sentiments for every key player in the league. Despite their differences, they provide a great measure of what to expect when your favorite player isn’t in the lineup.

Every game is different, so there is no exact spread number set in stone. Star players are generally worth their full value in terms of spread in key games that are expected to get tight, while not quite as much in games that are expected to be blowouts.

Public perception also plays a major role in how much a spread moves in the end. If a book makes an initial leap of three points after major injury news, it doesn’t mean the betting market won’t move it anymore.

For example, the line could move two more points, making a total of five. Or it could move back the other way.

According to Cooley: “The betting public is always overreacting to the absence of superstars. The books will adjust the number even with a little inflation, and public action usually leads to even more tweaks. On the other hand, however, you will always see smart players. “

He noted LeBron James, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, and Steph Curry, and some of the usual suspects for overreaction.

There is also a phenomenon that occurs when several star players on a team are outside at the same time. This leads to the fact that the values ​​become even more inflated.

For example, Cleveland rested its entire “Big 3” on the street against the Grizzlies a few years ago.

Although the sum of James, Irving, and Kevin Love’s individual point spread values ​​was only eight to nine points at that point, the line moved from Cleveland -7.5 to Memphis -7.

The line had initially risen from -7.5 to +3.5 after the news, but the market came in and pushed it down to move another 3.5 points.

These are the general baseball stadiums for each “level” used in this project, which can move a point in either direction depending on the situation.

Cooley also noted that many of the players in his Tier 5 may not affect the spread at all given their fringe status. So don’t be shocked if Jusuf Nurkic is ruled out and the line doesn’t move.

  1. Five points
  2. Four points
  3. Three points
  4. Two points
  5. One point

Here are the respective lists for this season together with the positions of each player in the last season. At the bottom are players who fell off the list.

Certainly an overwhelming list, but here are some of the talking points that I found most interesting.

One step higher

The first thing you will see is that James is in what I have called “King”. Cooley believes James is now worth 6-7 points with the Lakers, which is more than any other player in recent years.

CG Tech’s Young said he did almost the same thing but kept him at Standard Tier 1 for the time being, citing his regular-season defenses over the past few years as the reason.

I think we all agree that he flips the switch when it counts, but doesn’t always give 100% during the regular season.

Young noted that in a recent preseason game, the Lakers’ spread opened at +7 and closed +11.5 with no LeBron in the lineup, which is a very big move for preseason and could suggest it is more this season will be worth.

However, Young believes playoff LeBron is more valuable than anyone else in the league and is worth at least one more point.

Super teams

The two favorites that make it to the NBA finals are the Warriors and Celtics, two teams where the two odds makers were pretty divided.

Let’s start with the champions.

warrior

  • Steph Curry: DSI Tier 3, CG Tech Tier 2
  • Kevin Durant: DSI Tier 2, CG Tech Tier 3
  • Draymond Green: DSI Tier 3, CG Tech Tier 5
  • DeMarcus Cousins: DSI Tier 3, CG Tech N / A
  • Klay Thompson: DSI Tier 4, CG Tech Tier 5

Neither of the Warriors’ five stars is on par in these two stores. Young talked about why he thinks Curry is “the guy” with the Warriors.

“As incredible as Kevin Durant is, Curry is the engine of this offensive. His ability to spread the ground, move, and open off the ball is at such an elite level that there is of course a major drop in the entire team when Quinn Cook starts for him in the regular season, for example. Said Jung.

He also explained why Cousins ​​was removed from his list entirely.

“This is mostly injury-related, as an Achilles tendon tear is an injury that is difficult to overcome. Based on the history of the players who have suffered the injury, I believe it will be some time before Cousins ​​regains his form and that may not even be the case this season, ”added Young.

Celts

  • Kyrie Irving: DSI Tier 3, CG Tech Tier 4
  • Gordon Hayward: DSI Tier 3, CG Tech Tier 5
  • Jayson Tatum: DSI Tier 5, CG Tech Tier 4
  • Al Horford: DSI Tier 5, CG Tech Tier 5
  • Jaylen Brown: DSI Tier 5, CG Tech N / A

When Tatum was drafted, I doubt people expected him to be worth the same number of points for spreading as Irving after just one season. At least according to CG Tech.

There were several reasons Young believed Irving and Tatum were of similar worth.

On Irving: “I know his limits defensively, even though he has bought more from Brad Stevens than ever from Ty Lue. In many ways, most of all, to create for others. So Kyrie could be a Tier 3 considering how he expands his game. Maybe he’s a little cautious at the start of the year as he survives an injury. Although I am sure that he will be fine. “

He also noted that Terry Rozier’s strong play in Kyrie’s absence is a factor.

On Tatum: “Can guard multiple positions. The teams aren’t really going to target him like Kyrie. Elite spot-up shooter already, although its percentages dropped towards the end of the season. Had tough playoffs from 3, but still played at such a high level. You gave him 9.4 points / 100 more possessions in the playoffs.

He’s a little cautious about Hayward too, but believes he has a chance to move up the list this year.

“Maybe over-cautious until he sees how he’ll play in Boston, even though he’s incredibly fit on paper. Brown has played well enough in his absence, among other things, that he may not be worth more than one point for spreading.

Overrated?

There were a couple of players who failed to make either or both lists that caught my eye.

Blake Griffin: “While his two teams were better on the ground with him, he took a step back offensively. He scored 3.7 more 3 points per game last season compared to the 2016-17 season, so his game continues to evolve but his effective field goal percentage has decreased by two points. He didn’t come to the line at the same speed, nor did he come to the edge at the same speed and take on more middle-class jumpers. I’m also not sure if he will fit next to Andre Drummond just yet, but I am interested to see how he will fit into Dwane Casey’s offense. ”- Young

Goran Dragic: “Even though he’s had an all-star season and is one of the strongest offensive point guards in the league, he’s still a negative defender. Plus, the descent to backup Tyler Johnson isn’t that steep. ”- Jung

Hassan Whiteside: “Whiteside might be in Tier 6, but pretty dejected.” –Cooly

Marc Gasol: “Gasol’s numbers were down across the board last season. He started effectively threesome in the 2016-17 season but took a hit in this area last season with more volume. – Young

John Wall: Wall is on both lists but is only a Tier 5 player compared to Tier 2, according to CG Tech.

There you have it. For the latest NBA violation news, follow this side of Dixie @FantasyLabsNBA.

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