This Week 1 showdown at Lucas Oil Stadium is set to be a pivotal moment for two teams in the AFC South. The Houston Texans (10-7; 9-8-0 ATS last season) will face off against the Indianapolis Colts (9-8; 9-8-0 ATS last season) at 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday. Last season, a decisive Texans victory in Week 18 played a crucial role in determining the division champion. Starting the season with a win is paramount for both teams. Which team will seize the opportunity presented by the early schedule?
Texans Poised for a Strong Start
The Texans not only clinched the AFC South title in 2023 but also secured a playoff victory. This success marked a significant milestone for QB C.J. Stroud in his rookie season. As he enters his second year, the Texans have bolstered their roster with the addition of high-profile veterans WR Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon. Diggs joins an already formidable passing attack that ranked fifth in the league in passing yards last season, even without his presence. Stroud excelled, leading the league in passing yards per game and achieving the lowest interception rate, aiding Houston in committing the fewest turnovers. Meanwhile, Mixon aims to elevate the Texans’ rushing game, which finished 22nd in yards last year. With a fully healthy offensive line for the first time, can the Texans enhance their offensive performance from 12th in total yards and 13th in scoring to the top 10?
Defensively, the Texans showcased strength, allowing the 11th-fewest points last season. However, the Colts proved to be a challenge, scoring a total of 50 points in their two matchups. The 2024 Texans have an opportunity to improve their performance against the Colts, starting with a rush defense that limited opponents to just 3.5 yards per carry for second-best in the league. This sets up favorable situations for new pass rusher Danielle Hunter, who recorded 16.5 sacks. However, Houston’s defense also faced challenges, surrendering the fourth-most yards per pass attempt. They will need to tighten their coverage as they enter the new season with higher expectations.
Key Injuries – M.J. Stewart (questionable)
Colts Aiming for Redemption
Despite narrowly missing out on the AFC South title last year, the Colts had a commendable season. RB Jonathan Taylor missed seven games, and QB Anthony Richardson played only limited snaps. Nevertheless, they managed to finish with the 10th-most points in the league. With a fully healthy Taylor and Richardson this season, they are expected to outperform their previous rushing achievements. This dynamic duo could also create opportunities for the passing game. Michael Pittman Jr. stands out as a reliable receiver, complemented by Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and Alec Pierce, forming a potent receiving corps capable of improving their passing rankings.
On the defensive side, the Colts face more uncertainties. Their defense ranked 28th in points allowed and 24th in total yardage during last year’s 9-8 campaign. These disappointing numbers came despite the team recording the fifth-most sacks in the league. While the Colts were effective against the run, allowing the 10th-fewest yards per carry, they also dealt with the second-most rushing attempts against them. Questions loom over their secondary, which struggled, finishing 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt. The Colts will look to silence their critics and establish themselves as a strong contender in this critical matchup.
Key Injuries – Josh Downs (doubtful); Matt Gay (questionable)
Best Bets for Texans vs. Colts Showdown
The Colts enter the season with a strong foundation for an effective rushing attack. However, they face a challenge in this matchup against a Texans defense that allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per carry last season. Additionally, improvements in Houston’s front line create further obstacles for Anthony Richardson, who has yet to establish himself as a dependable passer capable of leading a game with his arm.
