The Chicago White Sox are set to face off against the Boston Red Sox this Friday at Fenway Park, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Currently, the Red Sox are favored at -255 on the moneyline, while the total for the game is set at nine runs.
Chicago, holding a record of 32-109 SU, with 57-84 against the spread and 62-71-8 on the over/under, will send right-hander Davis Martin to the mound. Martin, 27 years old, has struggled this season with an 0-3 record, a 3.62 ERA, and a 1.39 WHIP over seven appearances, including six starts.
On the other side, Boston (70-70 SU, 63-77 RL, and 72-61-7 O/U) counters with righty Nick Pivetta, who is 31 years old. Pivetta’s record stands at 5-10, with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP across 22 outings, which includes 21 starts.
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Chicago’s Momentum Shift After Recent Victory
Chicago recently broke a disheartening 12-game losing streak by defeating Baltimore 8-1 in their series finale. The White Sox amassed a remarkable 15 hits and four walks, including three home runs in that game. Despite this victory, they have struggled significantly on the road, holding a 14-55 record away from home this season and managing only five wins in 38 games during the second half of the season.
The team’s offensive leaders include 1B Andrew Vaughn, who has hit 16 home runs and driven in 60 runs, and LF Andrew Benintendi, boasting 15 home runs and a .655 OPS. However, they may be without CF Luis Robert Jr. (day-to-day due to a hamstring issue) and LF Miguel Vargas (eye injury) for the upcoming game. 3B Brooks Baldwin is also sidelined with a wrist injury. Overall, Chicago ranks last in the league in on-base percentage (.278) and OPS (.618), hitting 112 home runs, also the lowest in the league. Their pitching staff has a 4.87 ERA, placing them 29th overall.
In his last outing, Martin allowed four runs on five hits with six strikeouts in a loss to the Mets. On the road, he is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in three appearances, totaling 14 innings. Notably, Martin has limited four of his last five opponents to two or fewer earned runs.
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Red Sox Seeking Revival from Pivetta
The Red Sox were swept by the New York Mets in their previous series, with a combined score of 19-6 over three games. Boston’s recent performance has seen them lose five straight matches, bringing their record to 17-27 since the All-Star break. They will need to rally if they hope to finish the season with a winning record.
Boston’s offense is led by CF Jarren Duran, who has an impressive .877 OPS and 8.6 WAR, along with 3B Rafael Devers, who has contributed 28 home runs and a .898 OPS. The Red Sox are currently ranked 7th in on-base percentage (.321) and 5th in OPS (.715), with a total of 172 home runs, placing them 8th in that category. However, their pitching staff holds a 4.18 ERA, ranking 20th overall.
Pivetta will take the mound for Boston this Friday. His last performance saw him pitch six innings against Detroit, allowing two runs on six hits while striking out six batters. This season, he has a home record of 2-5 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 48.2 innings. Historically, Pivetta has been effective against the White Sox, boasting a 1-0 record with a 1.72 ERA in eight career appearances totaling 31.1 innings.
Expert Betting Insights for White Sox vs. Red Sox
Against right-handed pitchers, Boston has a .443 slugging percentage this season and ranks 6th in weighted on-base average (wOBA) since the All-Star break. Although the team has struggled offensively in recent games, they are expected to bounce back. Martin’s low ERA may misrepresent his performance, as his expected ERA (xERA) stands at 4.18 and his expected slugging percentage (xSLG) is .396, slightly above his actual slugging percentage. If the Red Sox can score early, they are likely to capitalize on the vulnerabilities of the White Sox bullpen, which has a 5.01 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and has allowed 73 home runs.
Pivetta is positioned for a turnaround, as indicated by his expected ERA of 3.71, significantly lower than his current ERA. He could thrive against a struggling White Sox lineup that may be missing key players like Robert Jr. and Vargas. If Pivetta receives solid support from his teammates, he could deliver an impressive performance.
Betting on Boston to cover the run line appears to be a prudent choice for Friday’s matchup.
