This Sunday marks the first face-off of the season between the New England Patriots (3-11; 5-8-1 ATS) and the Buffalo Bills (11-3; 9-5-0 ATS), set for 4:25 p.m. EST at Highmark Stadium. The Bills have claimed victory in their last three home games against the Patriots, winning five of the last six encounters overall. Will New England find a way to turn the tables this weekend?
New England’s Draft Destiny Looms
Coming off a 30-17 defeat last week, the Patriots are now in line for the third pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. While there have been glimpses of potential throughout the season, it is apparent that New England’s offense remains a significant concern. Currently ranked 30th in total yards and 31st in scoring, the team lacks sufficient offensive firepower. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye sits at 23rd in yards per pass attempt, struggling with a limited receiving corps. The Patriots have committed 18 turnovers and allowed 45 sacks, raising doubts about whether they can finally break the 20-point barrier on the road.
On the defensive front, the Patriots have not fared much better. They rank 22nd in yards allowed per game and 23rd in points allowed. With only two teams recording fewer takeaways, they sit at 24th in yards per pass attempt and 28th in sacks. While their run defense is ranked 14th in yards allowed per carry, they have faced the sixth-highest number of rushing attempts this season. The team’s last four opponents each managed to score at least 25 points. The question remains: how will New England respond to the offensive prowess of the Bills?
Key Injuries – Cole Strange (questionable); Kyle Dugger (questionable); Jabrill Peppers (questionable); Marcus Jones (out)
Buffalo’s Resounding Recovery
Last week, the Bills faced off against the Lions in a highly anticipated matchup. They bounced back from a previous loss, defeating Detroit 48-42 in a thrilling display of offensive power. This victory keeps the AFC East champions in contention for the top seed in the conference. Buffalo’s offense, which ranks second in the league for scoring, has now reached the 30-point mark in eight consecutive games. Led by MVP contender Josh Allen, the team boasts the third-highest yards per play average and sits eighth in yards per carry and seventh in yards per pass attempt. With the fewest sacks allowed and turnovers, can they maintain this momentum?
Defensively, Buffalo should not be overlooked. They rank fifth in takeaways, turning the tide of many games in their favor. Despite being 12th in scoring defense, they give up 4.7 yards per carry (24th) against the run and allow the 15th most yards per pass attempt. Currently sitting 20th in sacks, the Bills have shown vulnerability on defense, allowing over 40 points in consecutive games. However, their knack for creating turnovers offers their high-scoring offense more chances to capitalize. This combination has already proven effective ten times this season.
Key Injuries – Matt Milano (questionable); Rasul Douglas (questionable); Taylor Rapp (questionable); Damar Hamlin (questionable); Curtis Samuel (questionable)
Smart Picks for Patriots vs. Bills
