The rematch between the Miami Dolphins (2-5; 1-6-0 ATS) and Buffalo Bills (6-2; 5-3-0 ATS) is set for Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium. In their previous encounter in September, the Bills dominated with a score of 31-10. This time, the game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. EST. The Bills have a strong track record against the Dolphins, winning 9 out of their last 10 meetings since 2020. Is Miami ready to turn the tides, or will Buffalo continue its supremacy?
Get ready for some serious NFL action!
Continue reading for the Dolphins vs. Bills prediction.
Miami’s Challenge Persists
The Dolphins received a boost last week with Tua Tagovailoa’s return. In the two games he completed, Miami scored at least 20 points, while they averaged just 10 points across the other five games. However, they suffered a heartbreaking defeat to the Cardinals, blowing a nine-point lead in the last 10 minutes, ending the game at 28-27. Despite ranking sixth in yards allowed per game with 300.0, Miami’s defense has given up an average of 22.4 points per game. This season, the Dolphins are tied for 26th in takeaways (5) and sit at 30th in sacks (9). They have struggled to force turnovers, showing weaknesses in their overall defensive strategy. Despite these challenges, Miami has limited opponents to an average of 16.7 points per game on the road, which could be an advantage against Buffalo.
On the offensive side, the Dolphins rank last in points per game (13.9). Tagovailoa’s health is essential for their success. Without him, the team dropped to 25th in yards per play at 4.9. Star receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have not reached their expected production levels. Miami ranks 17th in both yards per carry and sacks allowed, indicating issues across their offensive line. They have shown some ball security, with only eight turnovers, which is tied for seventh-fewest in the league. Last week’s performance showed they can still score, but can they maintain that momentum against a strong rival?
Key Injuries – Tyreek Hill (questionable); Terron Armstead (questionable); Emmanuel Ogbah (questionable); Jordyn Brooks (questionable); Jevon Holland (questionable)
Buffalo’s Dominance Continues
The Bills enter the week sitting comfortably at the top of the AFC East, having won their last three games by significant margins. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging the fifth-most points per game at 28.8. Critics have pointed out QB Josh Allen’s tendency to be careless with the ball, yet Buffalo’s three turnovers are tied for the fewest in the NFL. Concerns about their passing game have faded, as Allen ranks seventh in yards per attempt, while the offensive line has allowed only 10 sacks this season. The Bills also boast a strong rushing attack, averaging 122.3 yards per game, supported by the eighth-most attempts in the league. They scored 31 points against Miami just a few weeks ago. Will they replicate that performance?
On defense, the Bills have proven tough to beat. Only two teams have scored over 20 points against them in the last seven games. They allow just 18.3 points per game, ranking sixth in the league. With 14 takeaways, they stand sixth overall in that category. The Bills have recorded 20 sacks, showcasing their defensive strength. They excel at defending the pass, limiting opposing quarterbacks to 6.5 yards per attempt (5th), but have shown some vulnerability against the run, allowing 4.8 yards per carry (27th). They need to tighten up their run defense to maintain their edge.
Key Injuries – Amari Cooper (questionable); Terrel Bernard (questionable); Christian Benford (questionable)
Top Predictions for Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
The rivalry between the Dolphins and Bills has leaned heavily in favor of Buffalo in recent years. Since 2020, Buffalo has won 9 out of 10 matchups, with many victories coming by more than six points. Given the current performance of both teams, it seems likely that Buffalo will secure another win this Sunday.
With the best turnover differential in the NFL, Buffalo should capitalize on Miami’s inability to force turnovers. The Dolphins’ rushing game is unlikely to challenge Buffalo’s stout defense, making it hard for them to sustain drives. Additionally, Miami’s defense does not generate enough pressure to disrupt Buffalo’s game plan. Expect the Bills to score over 30 points, as they have in every home game this season. Miami’s offense may struggle to keep pace against a formidable Buffalo defense. Betting on Buffalo against the spread appears to be a wise choice.
