Since 2021, the Toronto Blue Jays (67-74; 33-39 away) have dominated the Atlanta Braves (76-64; 38-29 home) with a winning streak of nine games. As the Braves aim for a postseason berth, they must put an end to this run during their home series at Truist Park. The second game is scheduled for Saturday at 7:20 p.m. EST. Will the Blue Jays continue their winning ways, or will they regret their trip to Atlanta this September?
Blue Jays Soaring Without Pressure
With little at stake, the Blue Jays can play freely as they approach the end of the season. Despite a successful August, their September has not yet yielded any victories. Starting pitcher Jose Berrios aims to turn that around on Saturday. He has secured wins in his last five outings, boasting a 2.63 ERA in the second half of the season. However, concerns linger regarding Berrios’s performance, especially his 4.34 ERA on the road. He has allowed the second-most home runs (28), with 20 coming in his 15 away games. Keeping the ball inside the park will be essential for Toronto’s chances. Additionally, the Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks low, sitting 28th in ERA, last in FIP, and last in WAR. What surprises await this pitching staff on Saturday?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a standout player for the Blue Jays this season. However, many teammates have struggled. After a solid August, the team ranks 18th in runs per game. Even with a power boost, they sit 23rd in home runs and 27th in stolen bases, despite an 82% success rate. Toronto’s overall statistics show them at 16th in batting average, 13th in on-base percentage, and 18th in slugging percentage. They are also 7th in strikeout rate and 9th in walk rate. Can they find a rhythm in Atlanta?
Key Injuries – Bo Bichette (out); Addison Barger (out)
Braves Fighting for Their Playoff Lives
The Braves have held the top wild-card spot for much of 2024 but now find themselves tied for the final playoff position. Every game is critical. Rookie pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach will take the mound on Saturday, having kept opponents to three or fewer runs in his last seven starts. Schwellenbach has a 3.69 ERA and a solid 1.068 WHIP. He will be supported by a relief team that ranks high in FIP, ERA, and WAR. Can this pitching lineup secure a vital win for Atlanta?
Like last year, the Braves lead the majors in hard-hit rate, but unlike 2023, this has not translated into run production. They average 4.27 runs per game, ranking 16th in the league. Their batting average stands at 17th, with a 21st rank in on-base percentage and 12th in slugging percentage. The absence of 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. has reduced their stolen base count to just 59, the second lowest in MLB. Atlanta also ranks 19th in walk rate and 24th in strikeout rate. Despite hitting the fourth-most home runs, can this lineup maintain its threat against Toronto?
Key Injuries – Ronald Acuna Jr. (out); Ozzie Albies (out); Austin Riley (out); Whit Merrifield (questionable)
Smart Betting Insights for Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
With Jose Berrios allowing 2.07 home runs per nine innings on the road and the Blue Jays’ bullpen struggling at the bottom of the league, expect the Braves’ powerful lineup, which leads in hard-hit rate and ranks fourth in home runs, to capitalize on Saturday night.
