On Thursday night, the Washington Nationals (62-76; 30-39 away) will face the Pittsburgh Pirates (65-73; 32-36 home) at PNC Park in a matchup devoid of playoff stakes. The game is set for 6:40 p.m. EST and marks the first meeting between these teams since April, when the Pirates won two out of three games in Washington. With pride on the line, will the Nationals seek to settle the score?
Expert Analysis for MLB Predictions!
Washington’s Road Journey Concludes
After a brief stop in Miami, the Nationals are making their final appearance on this six-game road trip. Following this series, they’ll return home for four of their next six matchups. This young team, ranked 21st in runs per game at 4.21, hopes to secure a victory in one of their remaining away games. Washington’s offensive strategy hinges on leading the league in stolen bases and maintaining one of the lowest strikeout rates, ranking sixth in that category. However, they sit in the middle of the pack for batting average (14th), on-base percentage (15th), and slugging percentage (23rd). Their walk rate is 22nd, and they are struggling with home runs, coming in at 29th overall. Thanks to 64 caught stealings, their stolen-base percentage stands at 75%, ranking them 26th. The Nationals will aim to make a mark in Pittsburgh.
Taking the mound for Washington is Jake Irvin, who is looking to bounce back from a challenging August that ended with a 6.61 ERA. In four of his six starts that month, the Nationals suffered losses. His current stats reveal a 4.08 ERA, a 4.41 FIP, and a 1.186 WHIP. Irvin must elevate his performance. If he can keep the game competitive, the Nationals can rely on a bullpen ranked 22nd in ERA, 12th in FIP, and ninth in WAR. Can this strategy lead to success?
Pittsburgh’s Homecoming
The Pirates are returning to PNC Park for their first home game in September, and the spotlight will be on their starting pitcher, Bailey Falter. Like Irvin, Falter has faced difficulties, posting a 6.53 ERA in August. He has conceded at least four runs in three of his last four starts and enters this matchup with a 4.41 ERA, a 4.23 FIP, and a 1.289 WHIP. The bullpen, however, is struggling, sitting 27th in ERA, 15th in FIP, and 15th in WAR. Will they be able to contain the Nationals?
At bat, the Pirates show slight improvement at home, averaging 4.22 runs per game, which places them 20th in the league. They have recorded 94 stolen bases, ranking 16th, while boasting the highest success rate in the league at 87%. This season, Pittsburgh ranks 23rd in batting average, 26th in OBP, and 25th in slugging percentage. They also struggle with home runs and strikeout rate, sitting in the bottom five in both categories. Their walk rate is a modest 7.8%, ranking 19th among MLB teams. Given these numbers, perhaps the familiarity of home will spark their offense.
Key Predictions for Nationals vs. Pirates
Several factors suggest the Nationals could secure a win. Jake Irvin has consistently performed better on the road, holding a 3.59 ERA away from home, with his three strongest outings in August occurring during away games. The Nationals also boast a more formidable bullpen compared to the Pirates.
In contrast, Pittsburgh’s offense lacks standout performances in any category aside from stolen bases, and they do not utilize this skill frequently enough to become a genuine threat. The Nationals, on the other hand, excel in stolen bases while also maintaining a solid batting average and decent on-base percentage. Bailey Falter’s alarming 5.54 ERA in the second half of the season highlights the vulnerabilities of the Pirates’ pitching staff. Therefore, betting on the visiting Nationals for Thursday’s matchup appears to be a wise choice.
